It's no surprise to fans who have been watching the Kansas City Royals this season that the bullpen has been much more of a hindrance than a help. From the absence of Carlos Estevez for almost the entire season to other former high-end arms performing so badly they needed to be optioned to the minors, the Royals have had a lack of consistency once their starters have left the mound. The numbers prove it too.
Kansas City relievers have a combined 5.04 ERA this season, the third-worst in MLB. Their 5.06 FIP is the worst among any bullpen unit and shows that their ERA hasn't just been bad luck. The Royals have the 10th most blown saves this season in the fourth least amount of reliever innings. They have allowed opposing hitters to hit .267 against them, the highest in MLB. As a unit, they have the second lowest fWAR this season: -2.9.
Traditional stats tell the initial story, but one really shows how bad the Royals bullpen has been
All those stats should be enough to show that the Royals need to address the bullpen this offseason, but their is one more damning stat that really puts the cherry on top. FanGraphs has a "Meltdowns" stat which tracks when a reliever's appearance lowers their team's win expectancy by 6% or more.
Kansas City has 99 meltdowns this season, only behind the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals. Alex Lange leads the Royals with 13 meltdowns, and Matt Strahm, Lucas Erceg, and John Schreiber all have ten or more.
While the Royals have a few holes to fix elsewhere on the roster, they have a budding young core on the offensive side of the ball. The starting rotation will still have Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Noah Cameron (barring a trade), and eventually the return of Cole Ragans. The those areas of the team could use some help, but it's the bullpen where J.J. Picollo should be focusing the team's resources this offseason.
Estevez will (more than likely) be off the books this winter and no other reliever has a guaranteed contract. That gives the Royals the flexibility to completely change the pitchers who will be out there during the offseason.
Royals fans should expect to see a whole crew of new faces coming out of the bullpen next season. That unit has been extremely underwhelming and hurt the team's chances a lot this season. With how weak the AL Central predicts to be next season, a bullpen overhaul could be all that's needed to return to the top of the division for the first time since 2015.
