Thin ice awaits this floundering Royals outfielder when spring training begins

With only three weeks to go until their first full team spring training workout, and little more than that left until they kick off their Cactus League schedule, the Kansas City Royals find themselves unsettled.

The big bat he's coveted for two straight winters still eludes general manager J.J. Picollo, his club has yet to exploit its overstocked rotation on the trade market, and who'll win the second base job is still a bit of a mystery.

But the status of at least one Royal hopeful of making the big league club is crystal clear — outfielder Drew Waters will be on thin ice as soon as he arrives at the Royals' Surprise, Arizona, spring headquarters.

The hard truth for Waters is that his Kansas City future looks bleak, which says a lot considering how promising a commodity he used to be. MLB Pipeline ranked him as Atlanta's No. 1 prospect when the Braves traded him (and two less-heralded minor leaguers) to KC in the summer of 2022.

Since then, his several stints in Kansas City — he's fairly regularly traveled the road between Kauffman Stadium and Triple-A Omaha — haven't measured up to that lofty status. His stock has dropped (more on that in a moment), he'll report to spring camp without a guaranteed major league roster spot, and that he's out of minor league options means he's in danger of disappearing from KC's plans even before the new season starts.

Drew Waters has a lot to lose when spring training begins for the Royals

Waters holds one of Kansas City's coveted 40-man roster spots, but that doesn't guarantee him anything: also on the 40-man are fellow outfielders Jac Caglianone, Kyle Isbel, and newcomer Isaac Collins, all of whom are certain starters, and Dairon Blanco, John Rave, Lane Thomas, and Kameron Misner, and outfield-capable utility man Nick Loftin. The competition for an outfield bench spot will be stiff.

Unfortunately, Waters' big league stats won't help him win that competition. In parts of four major league seasons covering 208 games and 684 plate appearances, he's slashing .234/.300/.369 with an 84 wRC+. He's homered only 14 times. The Royals sorely need more outfield punch, and those numbers don't suggest it will come from Waters.

And his complete lack of minor league options will be tough to overcome. Without even a single option, the Royals can't send him to the minors, where he's spent so much time since leaving Atlanta, unless they designate him for assignment and he clears waivers.

This, then, is a crucial time for Waters, especially if he wants to open the season with the Royals instead of on the waiver wire. Working in his favor is that the Royals still think enough of him to carry him on the 40-man, and his eight-season .350 OBP, .802 OPS, and .279 average provide some hope that he might eventually find his way at the big league plate.

But hope alone won't be enough to secure a job in Kansas City for Waters. Instead, he has to hit, and hit well, but past major league performance isn't on his side.

In any event, just how much faith the Royals still have in Waters isn't known with certainty. But this much is certain — he needs a big spring to solidify his position with the organization, and could be gone before Opening Day if he doesn't have it.