Royals trade potential future closer in effort to avoid shallow pitching depth

The Kansas City Royals have made several between-the-margins moves this winter already in an effort to right some of the wrongs of the 2025 season and better their chances of returning to October baseball in 2026.

And Thursday brought another one of those trades, that may've raised eyebrows but had a clear motive in mind for the 2026 season.

According to an official report from the team themselves, the Royals are sending promising relief pitching prospect A.J. Causey to the Athletics in exchange for major league swingman Mitch Spence.

On the surface, this deal certainly helps the Royals big league depth in 2026, however the future ramifications of trading Causey could come back to bite them.

Royals may've given up their future closer to avoid facing the pitching issues they did in 2025

Now, at first glance, the Royals trading for an arm capable of starting games seems comical. This is a team who many have been saying needs to trade away their starting surplus in order to strengthen other areas of the roster.

However, Spence isn't your run of the mill starting option. Sure he can start games, but he hasn't been that type of arm since 2024.

After being selected in the Rule 5 draft by the A's ahead of the 2024 campaign, Spence stuck with the squad all year, like he'd had to in order to remain in the organization, and made 24 starts in 35 appearances.

Come 2025 though, apart from making seven starts in eight appearances during his time in Triple-A, Spence took up more of a relief role with the A's, appearing in 84.2 innings across 32 games with only eight being starts.

This is likely due to the underwhelming 4.58 ERA he put up in his rookie campaign.

On the surface, it's easy to see how a potential swingman-type arm that can go multiple innings out of the 'pen, or in case of emergency can take up a spot starters role, would be appealing to this Royals squad. Especially one that has remaining minor league options like Spence.

Currently the two options in that role are Bailey Falter, fresh off an 11.25 ERA in his four outings as a Royal post-trade deadline, and Daniel Lynch IV, who given his left-handedness would likely be better served in a middle relief role considering how southpaw-limited this bullpen is.

The problem is though, Spence doesn't offer much to get excited about beyond his multiple years of big league experience. His 2025 season was worse than his '24 campaign, as he sported a 5.10 ERA, 5.10 FIP, 1.44 WHIP and .278 BAA.

And from an underlying metrics perspective, apart from an impressive 83rd percentile chase rate and solid 69th percentile walk rate, Spence leaves a lot to be desired. He surrenders quality contact at far too high of a rate - with a 29th percentile hard-hit rate and a third percentile barrel rate last season - and his expected metrics (xERA and xSLG) all sat in the bottom 5% of the league.

Then, there comes the fact that they traded a name like Causey, who admittedly still had some room to grow in the minors this year having not exceeded Double-A last season, but looked good in 2025 regardless.

In 40.1 innings at High-A Quad Cities, the 2024 fifth-rounder threw to a 1.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .175 BAA. Then, after moving up to Double-A Northwest Arkansas, Causey didn't miss a beat, tossing to a 1.91 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and .195 BAA in his first taste of the upper minors.

On top of that, at both stops he'd been handed some closing responsibilities, accumulating nine saves in total last season. Given the sub-2.00 ERAs on top of his late-inning responsibilities, it was easy to project a potential closer of the future here.

And, even if it didn't go all that well, the Royals decision to send him to the Arizona Fall League this offseason showed their commitment to giving him as much opportunity to grow.

At the end of the day, you can't knock J.J. Picollo and Co. for making such a move. They lacked real bullpen depth and given their starters injury track record in 2025, they surely didn't want to be put in the same rough place again if one of them were to go down this year. Spence undoudtedly helps in both areas.

However, the price may've been a tad steep to acquire someone with the uninspiring stats that he carries. Only time will tell how well this deal ages.