Royals risk missing a golden opportunity if they play it safe with Carter Jensen

One position that's been heavily undervalued in the age of pre-arbitration extensions has been catcher. Only three backstops in the last ten years have signed pre-arb deals: Samuel Basallo with the Baltimore Orioles (2025), Keibert Ruiz with Washington Nationals (2022), and Roberto Perez with the Cleveland Guardians (2017). None of those catchers had a season like Carter Jensen during his rookie year with the Kansas City Royals.

Perez had never had more than 1.5 bWAR during a season before signing a four-year deal with Cleveland. Ruiz had had back-to-back seasons of 1.4 and 1.5 bWAR before he inked an eight-year deal with the Nats. Hilariously, Basallo had just five games under his belt before he got his eight-year contract in Baltimore.  

A catcher's year-over-year performance can sway dramatically, making contract extensions for those players risky. The position itself takes a toll on the body that others don't, and with it comes more fatigue and injuries. All the risk aside, Jensen could be the outlier.

The 23-year-old's 3.7 fWAR was the sixth-highest for a rookie catcher since 2010. He's behind only Adley Rutschman, Yan Gomes, Wilson Ramos, Dillon Dingler, and Buster Posey. His 116 WRC+ is also the sixth-best of any rookie catcher during that span with more than 300 plate appearances.

Carter Jensen's incredible rookie season makes a Royals' contract extension tough to figure out

The question becomes: how does a team like the Royals value a catcher after they've had a season like that? Basallo currently has the largest pre-arb contract for a catcher at eight years, $67 million. Both Basallo and Jensen were top prospects before their rookie years, but the O's backstop was 21 when he signed his deal.

The nature of the position and his age likely means Jensen won't garner a nine-figure deal, but he'll probably do better than the seven-year, $70 million deal Jacob Wilson got from the Athletics last offseason. Both Basallo and Ruiz signed eight-year deals, and Ruiz was 24 — one year older than Jensen — when he signed his extension.

A solid projection might be in the neighborhood of eight years, $86 million. That would put the contract at an average annual value (AAV) of $10.75 million, get Jensen through his age-31 season, and buy out three years of free agency for the Royals.

Offensively, Jensen looked like one of the best offensive catchers in the game last year as a rookie. He has already brought in numerous awards, and defensively, he was no slouch.

Jensen could become one of the best catchers in baseball. If that happens, it will be very hard for the Royals to afford him when he reaches free agency at 28 years old. The Royals need to think like a small market team, and if they want the Kansas City native to stick in his home city for a long time, the best way to do it is to sign him to a longterm deal this offseason.

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