Royals record may've created an MVP problem Bobby Witt Jr. couldn't outrun

It will be no surprise to Kansas City Royals fans when Bobby Witt Jr. finishes high on the American League MVP ballots again this year. The 26-year-old shortstop already has three top-10 finishes on his resumé including a fourth-place and a second-place finish. Witt has once again had a stellar year. His 6.7 fWAR is the highest among AL players (as of September 24), and his 6.5 bWAR is third.

WAR totals like those can usually result in an MVP win. Since 2021, the AL leader in fWAR has taken home that season's award. If that trend holds true, Witt would take home the award this season, but nobody is predicting that to happen.

Witt is one of the best all-around shortstops in a long time. Since his debut in 2022, the three-time All-Star is second in the AL in fWAR, behind Aaron Judge, but eight higher than Jose Ramirez in third. His 33.4 career fWAR is the sixth most for a shortstop all time by the age-26 season, and the third most in the start of the Expansion Era (since 1961) behind only Alex Rodriguez and Cal Ripken Jr.

There is always something in the way of Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. winning an MVP

Unfortunately for the former No. 2 overall pick, his ascension has come at the same time as Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge's excellence in the AL, taking away potential MVP seasons. This year, there hasn't been that far-and-away leader for the MVP; what's hurting Witt now is the Royals' lack of success.

While MVPs have been handed out to players on teams with sub-.500 records, those players usually are a class above the rest in their league. When Ohtani won in 2021 (on a 77-85 Los Angeles Angels team), his fWAR was 1.4 higher than second place. When Mike Trout won in 2016 (on a 74-88 Angels team), he had 1.3 fWAR more than second. When Alex Rodriguez won in 2003 (71-91 Texas Rangers squad), he was 1.8 higher. Witt is 0.1 above Yordan Alvarez in second.

When players' numbers don't separate them, it comes to team context. Which team was more successful? Did one make the playoffs? Who was more impactful to their team's success? Those are all questions that become much more relevant when stats can't make a clear distinction. In Witt's case this season, the Royals are already out of playoff contention while the Houston Astros could win their division.

If Witt ever hopes to win MVP, he is going to need Kansas City to be more competitive. Between his bat and his defense, he obviously has the talent to do so, but the AL is full of great players who can potentially put up numbers close to his. If the Royals remain uncompetitive during their star players' prime, his chances at winning and MVP will decrease significantly. If the Royals get into the playoffs, he could win multiple awards.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow