Royals fans must take this reliever's second-half bounce back with a grain of salt

Despite a poor stretch in September, the Kansas City Royals did see a surge in performance after the All-Star break that propelled them back into the postseason mix deep into the season after looking down for the count at multiple points this season.

Amidst the Royals second-half surge has been a series of individual improvements, including from a player that was argubaly their worst bullpen arm before hitting the IL, Sam Long.

While Long may be looking far more serviceable than his first-half self, Royals fans should be wary of jumping on the hype train quite yet with the southpaw, as a deeper look into the numbers will show numerous aspects that are less than ideal.

Royals fans should be hesitant to buy-in on Sam Long amid second-half bounce back

The key stat that will jump off the page when comparing Long's first half and second half stats is the ERA. Before the All-Star break, Long was sporting an ERA just shy of 10.00 (9.82). However, since then, his ERA has been just north of 2.00 (2.12).

Now, it should be prefaced that Long is undeniably showing improvements across the board. The pont is though that it's not enough change to really warrant the Royals buying in on his stock as the offseason approaches.

His second-half WHIP is still a poor looking 1.54 and his BAA is stil in the high .200s at .276. Long also sports a 4.48 second-half FIP, which is more than double his ERA, implying that he's gotten lucky more often than not.

His strikeout rate has gone up and his walk rate has dropped, but a 19.1% K-rate and a 10.0% are not inspiring marks to say the least.

And even with a "surge" in the later months, his expected metrics still paint a picture of bullpen arm that could easily be cut at a moments notice without batting an eye - he holds a 4.64 xERA and .263 xBA for the 2025 season.

The month of September might be the perfect example of the confusing and unconvincing arm Long has been this season. Before a bit of blow-up in his most recent outing on Tuesday - where he surrendered two runs (one earned) off two hits (one homer) and walk - Long had yet to surrender an earned run in final month of the season. His monthly ERA looks sterling at 1.50, but his WHIP looks borderline atrocious at 1.67.

The fact he's a lefty in a righty-dominant bullpen and has no remaining team options could very well be the reason why he's survived so many roster shuffles this season. But don't let his survival on the active roster this season fool you, Long is pitching more towards being out of the team's 2026 plans than he is to being a key figure in the Royals' bullpen in the future.