Royals' demotion of Lucas Erceg is last-ditch effort to repair damage from disastrous season

When Lucas Erceg was traded to Kansas City in 2024, it looked like a great trade. The deal sent Jared Dickey, Will Klein, and Mason Barnett to the Athletics, and in return the Royals got a fire-breathing dragon at the back end of their bullpen. Through the end of 2025, Lucas Erceg was 11th among all relievers with a 2.2 fWAR. His fastball sat at 98 mph, and his slider graded as an above-average offering. Erceg has been declining since he arrived in Kansas City, though, and yesterday the Royals did the unthinkable and demoted him to Triple-A Omaha.

After Carlos Estévez was put on IL early in the season, Erceg seemed like the natural choice to fill the closer role that Estévez left behind. That move couldn't of backfired any worse. There's no easy way around it: Erceg hasn't just been KC's most disappointing bullpen arm outside of Carlos Estévez, but he's been one of the worst in all of baseball.

Erceg has appeared in 47 games and has had a nightmare season all across the board. His decline in strikeouts per nine (10.51 in 2024, 7.04 in 2025, and 6.44 in 2026) is the most concerning, but his walk rate is in the bottom 4% of the league (13.9%), and his horrific 6.23 ERA is tied for the fourth-worst among qualified relievers (he's tied with fellow Royals Alex Lange).

It's no secret that Erceg has carried the weight of his failure all season. He wears defeat on his face like a cheap cologne every time he's faced with adversity. Monday's outing was just another bad episode in what's been the worst season of his pro career. He walked two, gave up a hit and a run, but did not record a single out.

Newly acquired arm Carlos Duran will be taking his place on the roster while Erceg tries to get his confidence back. Duran has the makings of a great late-inning reliever with a devastating slider and a fastball that lives in the upper-90s. His slider is his best offering, and he uses it 43% of the time.

As for Erceg, he signed a one-year deal worth $803,500 for 2026 and is eligible for arbitration in 2027. The Royals still believe in him, or they would've just designated him for assignment, so it's fair to say he's very likely to return to the team next year.

The Royals can still salvage some of his value by tweaking a few of the issues that have held him back in 2026.

Lucas Erceg can still help the Royals in 2027 and beyond

Sometimes you have to go back to move forward. Lucas Erceg will need to return to Triple-A and figure out how to repair his mental approach and his pitch mix if he wants to stick in the major leagues.

It's not a death sentence for the four-year pro to be demoted; it's an opportunity to refine his game in a less pressurized environment. The best version of the Royals has Erceg on the team, and a major part of it. You don't just give up on guys who can touch 100 mph in your bullpen.

As it currently stands, there are only a few guys who have locked-in roles for the Royals’ pen in 2027: Steven Cruz, Nate Pearson, and Daniel Lynch IV (he's making starts now, but I think he’s best suited for the bullpen).

Estévez has a $13 million club option that kicks in next season, which I have to imagine the Royals will not be picking up. Perhaps the Royals opt to bring back John Schreiber on another team-friendly deal, but he'll be 33 when next season starts. While the Royals will have to look outside the organization to fill a couple of spots, there will be room for a few guys from this year's rotation.

There's room for Erceg, but he desperately needs to get into the lab and examine his pitch arsenal to see what works and what doesn't. If you dive into his arsenal, you'll find a good heater and a useful slider, but his changeup has been getting rocked. He's decreased his usage in the pitch every year since joining KC, going from 20.9% with the A's in 2024 to 13.7% with the Royals.

The league is hitting .542 off of it and slugging an unbelievable 1.000 against it. He's only inducing a 19.6 whiff rate and has a 0% put-away rate on his changeup, meaning he can't strike out guys with it, and it's getting hammered when players make contact.

Erceg could benefit from adding a sweeper to complement his slider. The sweeper could work like an exaggerated slider, with more dramatic horizontal movement out of the same tunnel. Imagine a right-handed hitter seeing a 98 mph fastball, followed by an 89 mph slider, and then a low-80s sweep.

His stuff warrants that the Royals maintain their faith in him as a player and person, and hopefully Erceg does the same. It's not time to turn out the lights on him just yet.

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