Royals' breakout hopeful Jac Caglianone draws impressive comparisons to Rays All-Star

The Royals told anyone who would listen that they wanted Jac Caglianone to ease into the big leagues in 2025. As it stands in 2026, they are taking the kid gloves off Cags and expect him to be the anchor he was promised to be.

His freshman season was a whirlwind for him and, quite frankly, mishandled by the Royals due to incompetence on their major league roster. It’s not a stretch to suggest that Cagliaone looked lost at the plate a fair number of at-bats.

Despite a turbulent first year in The Show, Caglianone still has the admiration and respect from the baseball community. David Adler of MLB.com touted the young slugger as someone to watch for a breakout in 2026.

Adler looked at the players who broke out in 2025 (Cal Raleigh, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Paul Skenes, among others) and predicted who could have similar seasons in 2026. As for Caglianone? How does Tampa Bay Rays star Junior Caminero sound?

Is comparing Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone fair?

Caminero took one of, if not the biggest, jumps from his 2024 to 2025 season of anyone in baseball. After a forgettable rookie season, Caminero flipped a switch and turned into one of the best power hitters in the game.

That's what Ader says he expects from Caglianone:

"The 22-year-old lefty has elite bat speed -- his 77.4 mph average swing speed in 2025 was top 10 for hitters who took as many swings as him. His 12% barrel rate as a rookie gives him a solid power-hitting foundation to build on."

David Adler, MLB.com

The comp seems lofty at first, but when you dive into their swing data, it makes a lot of sense. Caminero’s swing speed and barrel rate in his rookie season were eerily similar to Caglianone’s, and he was able to put it all together in his sophomore campaign.

Caminero went from 6 home runs in 2024 to 45 in 2025. The Dominican slugger benefited from cutting down on his whiff rate and reduced his K-rate from 21.5 to 19.1. His average exit velocity rose from 89.7 to 92.4. Hitting away from Tropicana Field and playing his home games at hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field didn't hurt either.

Jac Caglianone will also get the bonus of hitting in a friendlier environment for home runs, with Kauffman Stadium getting a makeover in the outfield. The left and right field walls will be moved 9-10 feet from the foul poles, tapering off toward center field.

That could spell more Cag bombs in 2026. A 45 home run output like Caminero's in 2025 sounds like a ton initially, but for someone with Jac’s bat speed, size, and power track record, it doesn't seem out of the question.

That being said, it's more reasonable to expect 30-35 homers from him if he plays a full season, however, it's difficult to project Caglianone because his 2025 season was so poor.

You have to believe in what you saw in the minors, where he ate pitchers for breakfast weekly. He has nothing left to prove there.

The great Yogi Berra always said the game is 90% mental, and that’s what Jac has to master if he wants to bounce back and the Royals want to compete for the division.