Reliever's crazy stats will drive this KC Royals Rule 5 Draft decision

MLB's Rule 5 Draft — the annual pro talent mess that traditionally tops off the game's Winter Meetings — is less than a month away. That means the Kansas City Royals have until November 19 to decide which of the organization's players they'll shield from the draft by sliding them onto the club's 40-man roster.

One player to watch is reliever Eric Cerantola. Is he worth protecting? Or should the Royals let him go to the Draft, potentially losing him from the organization?

It could be a tough call, or an easy one. That's because two of Cerantola's most critical minor league numbers, accumulated in the four seasons since the Royals picked him in the fifth round of the 2021 Draft, present a dilemma. One stands out like a beacon of hope, talent, and potential; the other like a sore thumb. Combined, the two stats represent profound extremes of performance — Cerantola is too wild, but piles up strikeouts at an astonishingly high rate.

Control problems plague KC Royals prospect Eric Cerantola

The strike zone is a moving, ever-elusive target for Cerantola, and has been since he pitched for both Kansas City's Arizona Complex League teams after the 2021 draft. In four games split evenly between those clubs, he walked seven batters in 4.2 innings. He walked 14 batters in 30.1 innings spread across Single-A and High-A in 2022, 46 in 76.1 frames in the 2023 campaign he split between High-A and Double-A, and another 50 in 72.2 innings across Double-A and Triple-A in 2024.

All those free passes give the right-hander a four-season 5.72 BB/9, an unsightly stat for any pitcher, and unacceptably high for the reliever he is. Walking that many batters won't help him get to the majors, and certainly won't permit a long stay if he does.

Strikeouts are Eric Cerantola's pitching bread and butter

Tempering Cerantola's struggles with control, and one of the biggest reasons — if not the biggest — why MLB Pipeline considers him the 29th-best prospect in the organization, is the impressively high percentage of batters he strikes out. He's fanned 245 in 184 innings (11.98 K/9) as a professional. Given his lofty walk rate, he obviously misses a lot of bats.

Considered alone, his ability to strike out so many makes Cerantola an ideal candidate for late-inning relief work. A good fastball, decent stuff, and a career 3.62 ERA only add to his credentials.

But will Kansas City protect him from the upcoming Rule 5 draft?

Expect the KC Royals to add Eric Cerantola to the 40-man roster

Players signed when they were 18 or younger and who've played professionally for five seasons, as well as those who — like Cerantola — signed when they were at least 19 and have four seasons under their belts, are exposed to the Rule 5 Draft if they aren't on their organizations' 40-man rosters by November 19. In the Rule 5 Draft, teams without full 40-man rosters are eligible to snatch unprotected players, immediately adding them to their own rosters.

The Royals currently have six vacancies on their 40-man roster and at least three good candidates to fill half of them. Despite all the walks he's given up, Cerantola should be a cinch to be protected — a young pitcher who strikes out so many and isn't short on stuff should get at least another season to get his control in check. And that's especially true when the hurler in question could help a club whose bullpen has been too shaky for too long.