Will Smith deserves a spot in the KC Royals circle of trust

First impressions are everything. Whether it be a new job, friend group, or networking opportunity, that introduction sets the tone until substantially proven otherwise. If you need a poor first impression reference, look no further than reliever Will Smith's first game with the KC Royals.

Smith's Royals debut on Mar. 30, 2024, could not have gone much worse. He came in the top of the ninth, in a 1-1 ball game. Any error was going to hurt, but Smith's two-hit, two-walk outing led to four runs for the Minnesota Twins. Kansas City's presumptive closer, from veteran experience to being the headline offseason bullpen acquisition, set a terrible first impression.

But that was more than four months ago.

Smith's ERA remains high due to a few rough outings, but he has found a productive niche in a low-leverage relief role as Kansas City searches for bullpen solutions. While Royals fans may still remember his early-season struggles, Smith's recent performance on the mound over the past month has restored faith in the southpaw.

The KC Royals have found marginal value in retaining Will Smith

Baseball is all about sample size, so let's review Smith's performance since June 1. Over 18 games, he has pitched 17 1/3 innings. While 12 strikeouts and five walks may not be impressive, Smith does what is necessary to keep the scoreboard clean. His 1.56 ERA since June 1 is the best among all Royals relievers with at least five innings pitched.

Sure, he is absolutely pitching to contact, and his team-leading 49.1% flyball rate is risky. He isn't overpowering hitters with velocity, but his pitch sequencing and location elevate the effectiveness of his arsenal. He relies on his slider more than 50% of the time, and as demonstrated against the Tigers, that slider is highly effective.

We can discuss results endlessly, but it's important to consider the context. Smith exclusively occupies a low-leverage role for manager Matt Quatraro. According to FanGraphs, if a medium-leverage situation equals 1, Smith's average leverage when entering a game is 0.86. Since June 1, 12 of Smith's 18 appearances have fit this low-leverage criteria. There's nothing wrong with that; it's the role in which he excels, so why disrupt a good thing?

Should Royals fans want Smith pitching in the ninth inning again, no matter what? Absolutely not. That's why they acquired relievers Hunter Harvey and Lucas Erceg, to excel in those high-leverage roles. However, save opportunities only arise if the initial bullpen effort is effective. Smith's recent performance proves he can be a crucial part of that initial effort, helping to keep Kansas City competitive in games.

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