The Kansas City Royals jumped all over the Chicago White Sox on Monday night in the opening game of the AL Central series, 12-5, and will look to follow it up with another win on Tuesday.
The Royals will hope Jordan Lyles can figure it out on the mound against a banged up White Sox lineup, but the offense should continue to thrive against Lucas Giolito and one of the worst bullpens in the big leagues.
Here are the odds and our best bet for Tuesday's matchup:
White Sox vs. Royals odds, run line and total
White Sox vs. Royals prediction and pick
Both teams have pop in the lineup, just below the big league average (the Royals are 18th in slugging percentage while the White Sox are 20th), which outperforms the team's batting average. So, when they hit, they hit the ball deep.
This is impactful for both starting pitchers who allow more than one home run per nine innings and Lyles is in real trouble, allowing 11 home runs in over 40 innings of work this season.
The White Sox are able to clobber the ball and Lyles has done a poor job of avoiding barells all season with a 6.69 ERA and a diminishing strikeout rate (less than seven per nine innings).
However, I can't trust the White Sox as road favorites with Gilotio's middling performance so far this season and one of the worst bullpens in the big leagues. Giolito has an ERA of 3.67 but has struggled to strike batters out at the same rate he used to when he was in the Cy Young hunt three-plus years ago, less than nine per nine innings.
Further, the team's bullpen is putrid, the second highest ERA in Major League Baseball (6.37 collectively), only the Oakland Athletics have a worse ERA. It's not much better for the Royals either, who have the fourth highest mark.
Overall, I can't put my faith in either pitcher, and both offenses can rack up extra base hits, so I'll side with the over on Tuesday night.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.