It's been a miserable year for Jordan Lyles and the Kansas City Royals as the right hander leads the big leagues in losses, but is it overblown?
Kansas City will start Lyles against the Detroit Tigers in the series opener between two rebuilding AL Central teams.
Detroit will counter with Matt Manning, who will try to maintain his decent standing this season. The biggest questions come for both offenses that have been at the bottom of the bigs in most hitting categories over the last month.
Here are the odds for Monday's matchup:
Tigers vs. Royals odds, run line and total
Tigers vs. Royals prediction and pick
Lyles has a dismal record, but his numbers aren't as bad as his record appears. He has a 6.51 ERA, a terrible mark, but his xERA is nearly two runs lower at 4.85, hinting that he is due for some postivie variance.
I believe this is a good spot for him against the Tigers, who check in 26th over the last 30 days in OPS. The team has been futile at the plate and Lyles strong underlying metrics indicate that he should outperform expectations.
Unfortunately, the Royals offense won't take advantage, 28th in OPS over the last 30 days and facing a strong young pitcher in Manning. The right hander has a 3.71 ERA and has generated soft contact all season, allowing about an eight percent home run to fly ball rate. With the Royals struggles at the plate, I expect another fine outing.
With both offenses a mess at the dish, I'll side with both pitchers and take the under.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.