Royals vs. Rangers prediction and odds for Wednesday, April 12 (KC undervalued?)

Apr 8, 2023; San Francisco, California, USA;  Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7)
Apr 8, 2023; San Francisco, California, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7) / John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals couldn't pick up a big win as massive underdogs against the Rangers in extra innings on Tuesday night, but will look to salvage a three game series against the Rangers with a win on Wednesday night to cap off the series.

Kansas City will send Brad Keller to the mound on Wednesday night against free agent signing Nathan Eovaldi. The former Red Sox rotation piece that was a key cog in World Series' runs has been battling injuries of late and will look to sustain consistency and outperform his contract in Texas, but we have seen both the good and bad through two starts for Eovaldi.

Is it worth fading him as a big favorite on Wednesday? Let's dig into the odds:

Royals vs. Rangers odds, run line and total

Royals vs. Rangers prediction and pick

Eovaldi hasn't gone past the sixth inning yet in two starts, allowing five total runs and 11 hits, but he has had solid control with only three walks. However, can we justify this price against a Royals team that will have one of its few quality arms on the mound?

Brad Keller has had an up-and-down career, but could he be coming into his own in 2023? He has allowed only three earned runs in over 10 innings of work across two starts, due in large part to his ability to keep the ball on the ground. He has allowed a career high ground ball rate of 63% so far this season, which would be massive against an explosive Rangers lineup that has power littered throughout.

Meanwhile, no team has had worse luck turning contact into hits than the Royals. Kansas City is last in the big leagues with a batting average on balls in play of .237 this season. Even when the team is getting the bat on the ball, it's not leading to base runners. While Kansas City is not going to contend for the postseason just yet, the team is due for some natural regression to the mean and I believe they are a play on team with Keller on the mound against a potentially overvalued Rangers club.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.