Overreaction or reality: Keller's, Cuas', Garcia's springs so far

The KC Royals are now on the back half for their spring training schedule. The team is beginning to move players to their respective minor-league levels, inching towards identifying their critical contributors during the 2023 season. The Royals have discovered their rhythm this spring training, leading the Cactus League standings by a wide margin. Fans can discount spring training wins and stats all they want, but these players are still showing positive signs for their 2023 season. With new coaches, a new manager, and the same building blocks, there is still a positive feeling about these Royals past Opening Day.

The season beyond Opening Day is what worries most fans. There have been plenty of springs where the team racks up wins, individual players look good, and the Royals faithful get optimistic once again. But, as Ted Lasso reiterates, "It's the hope that kills you." This season, there is a fundamental change in the Royals organization, one palpable enough that personnel at all levels notice it. Fans should believe in this spring training success and believe in that change transitioning past Opening Day.

That belief is what brings us to these three players. These players had stand-out spring showings, low expectations, or a combination. They benefit from some hot starts, but will their individual performances continue into the season? 

Overreaction or reality: Brad Keller is back.

If there is any spring training performance I want to believe in the most, it is pitcher Brad Keller's. Keller improved in many ways from the 2021 campaign, but he still has the seventh-highest ERA among pitchers who threw 200-plus innings in the past two seasons. He struggled mightily at points in 2022 and ended the season 6-14 with a 5.09 ERA. Keller was candid about his struggles the last two seasons, which relegated him to the bullpen late last season.

"I didn't have great success the last two years. Something's got to change. I needed to venture out of my comfort zone, figure out what's going on, what's going to allow me to get better. I couldn't keep doing the same stuff. And I'm happy with what I landed on."

Fans often hear the phrase "best shape of his life" during spring training. But MLB.com's Anne Rogers noted that "Keller showed up to camp slimmer and stronger" after he worked with Driveline Baseball this offseason. The result? A new-look curveball and revamped arsenal that pitching coach Brian Sweeney described as "impressive" ahead of spring training. 

As of March 10, Keller has been impressive against opposing batters this spring. He has struck out 10 batters, won two starts, and recorded a 3.52 ERA. By every metric, this is the best spring training of Keller's career, and he is again pushing for a rotational role.

"I feel like it's helped me out a lot this spring so far. Not only with the pitches, but the command of everything has gotten a lot tighter. I feel like that's how I used to pitch, just moving fast and pounding the zone. So, it's been cool to get back to that and feel that again."

Keller talks about returning to a certain feeling or getting back to something. That return could be his 2018-2020 form, where Keller went 21-23 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Keller looked like a solid future arm for the Royals not long ago. If the player believes in himself, then the coaches do, then the fans should have some faith. 

Verdict: Reality

Overreaction or reality: Maikel Garcia is ready.

Infielder Maikel Garcia is one of the sexiest picks to make the Royals' Opening Day roster, and rightfully so. Through March 12, Garcia has a .412 batting average, seven hits, and four RBIs. The spring training stats look good for Garcia, but he is not ready for a full-time role in the MLB.

It is not Garcia's bat that is lacking, as he has a track record of improving at the plate. He was once a contact-only hitter, known for his glove and speed. But the 23-year-old Garcia saw a significant power jump in 2022, hitting 11 home runs in the minors, then four more in winter-league action. It may not seem like much, but Garcia only had five career home runs in any professional action before 2022. Whatever Garcia found, it shot him up the prospect rankings to Kansas City's third-best prospect in 2023, according to MLB Pipeline. They still only give him a 35-power grade, but that is a bump from his 2022 and 2021 profiles.

On top of the power, Garcia did not look overwhelmed in limited major-league action in 2022. He had 23 plate appearances, collecting seven hits and an RBI in nine games. The .318 batting average and .711 OPS are from a small sample size, but they still exceeded fans' expectations for his debut.

The only thing holding Garcia back now is the people ahead of him, believe it or not. He has played exclusively in the infield during his professional career, with nearly 4,000 innings at shortstop. Some analysts called for the Royals to move Bobby Witt Jr. to third base and let Garcia's plus-glove take over at shortstop. After all, Witt's defensive struggles at shortstop were well-documented last year, and he may be a better fit for the hot corner. But, manager Matt Quatraro expressed confidence and patience with Witt at shortstop.

"I think his defense will get better...I think being at one position is going to be a big bonus for him."

So, Garcia's path to the majors via shortstop is pretty closed off. MLB.com's Anne Rogers did report that Garcia will have a chance at playing third base this spring, but he has played only five innings and has no defensive opportunities there. Garcia starting Opening Day as the third baseman is improbable, and they would not hinder his development there by leaving him on the bench in Kansas City. The other option is moving Garcia to an outfield role for the time being, a position that his speed and glove would transition to just fine. But there is a learning curve to any position, and the Royals should have other outfield options than Garcia. 

If the Royals coaches decide moving Garcia to another position is the route, he will need time to learn that new position. Garcia could make a mid-season debut, like first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino in 2022. Still, he must show more defensive versatility first and maintain his batting performance from last year. Both are no easy feat, but Garcia could make himself undeniable before the season's end. 

Verdict: Overreaction