What KC Royals trends you should believe, not believe after MLB's first month

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The MLB season is still young, but the KC Royals are certainly off to a great start. The April showers have been kind, growing May flowers to the tune of 18-13. That is one of the best starts in franchise history, outpacing two championship teams and several winning iterations from Kansas City's golden years. This team is far from perfect, but the on-field product is vastly improved from 2023.

Let's talk about these KC Royals trends one month into the season.

Any baseball fan knows a season is a marathon, rather than a sprint. Royals fans could celebrate the fact that this team would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. But, many will remind themselves of 2024's 131 remaining games and Kansas City's propensity for error down the stretch.

Knowing that, I took stock of who is and isn't powering Kansas City's hot start. Here are my trends that I believe will last the entire season, and those I believe will wilt in the summer heat.

What to believe

1. Royals base-stealing aggressiveness

If the Royals were more aggressive in stealing bases against the Toronto Blue Jays, the series would have swung their way. Looking at the current season, Kansas City has been very aggressive on the basepaths. The Royals roster three of MLB's fastest players, with Bobby Witt Jr., Dairon Blanco, and Garrett Hampson all ranking in the league's top 20 fastest runners.

Kansas City attempts to steal second base 13% of the time, good for the third-highest in MLB. Being so aggressive is one thing, but being the third-most successful team at stealing second is another. The Royals have swiped 30 bags as of April 30 and have only been caught four times. That 88% success rate ranks third in MLB, thanks to the combination of situational awareness, and raw speed on the basepaths.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-managers.shtml

2. MJ Melendez's improved defense

We were all pretty hard on MJ Melendez for his glove in the outfield last year. Sure, we all knew it was his first year playing the position, and the transition happened at the MLB level, but wow, it was bad at points. Likewise, Royals fans should celebrate his turnaround in left field.

His 2 Defensive Runs Saved rank eighth among all MLB left fielders and contribute to Kansas City being tied for the most Defensive Runs Saved this season. His 1 Out Above Average is an improvement, but his arm value, which ranks in the 99th percentile, has been a revelation. He is more comfortable and sure of what he is doing in the field in left. That doesn't just disappear overnight.

3. Nelson Velázquez's slow start

This spring, Nelson Velázquez earned his fair share of doubters. The outfielder came to Kansas City at the trade deadline and was absolutely electric in limited action. But he was ice cold in Arizona. Which version would Royals fans see following Opening Day? Sadly, Velázquez's performance so far resembles the latter all too well.

His 88 wRC+ in 26 games is below expectations for a player whose value primarily comes from batting. His expected stats do not offer a solution, his .333 BABIP is more than acceptable, and his 33.3% strikeout rate is a noticeable jump from 2023. He will have a hot streak here and there for Kansas City, but this slow start is setting a negative tone for Velázquez's season.

4. Hunter Renfroe's negative value

Fans should absolutely talk about the positives during Hunter Renfroe's debut month in Kansas City. The production with runners in scoring position is decent. The arm strength is still there. He is walking more than expected. But all of that is ignoring one overwhelming fact: Renfroe is not producing, considering his contract or not.

Nearly every one of his batting statistics, even expected ones and rates, are nearly the worst in his career. Despite his reputation for power hitting, Renfroe's career lows in exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage raise concerns about his ability to drive the ball effectively. That doesn't even begin to touch on Renfroe's negative defensive value. His two-year contract worth $13 million continues to look like a terrible move, a smudge on general manager J.J. Picollo's offseason.

What not to believe

1. Matt Sauer's productive run

I love Matt Sauer's story (so far) in 2024. A Rule 5 draft pick last winter, Sauer has made the transition from Double-A to The Show seamlessly. His 2.38 ERA through 11⅓ innings is one of the best stat lines in the Royals bullpen. Quatraro has deployed the righty primarily in low-leverage situations, to ease his transition and build his confidence at the major league level. But not everything has been sunshine and daisies for Sauer. In fact, he has been one of Kansas City's worst relievers in many aspects.

Sauer has five strikeouts to nine walks in his MLB career, resulting in an ugly 5.80 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). Additionally, MLB's expected stats project a 7.50 FIP for him, ranking second-worst among all MLB pitchers. Sauer's walk-to-strikeout ratio will come back to bite him eventually, and if he doesn't improve his control, the wheels will likely fall off.

2. The bullpen being above average

See Sauer's outlook and apply that to most of Kansas City's bullpen to a minor degree. The Royals' bullpen, outside of closer James McArthur, usually feels unreliable in high-pressure situations. The bullpen's collective 3.53 ERA is more than acceptable, ranking in MLB's top 10. They are stranding baserunners, but the real concern is how often they allow baserunners to reach base.

Royals relievers cannot buy a strikeout to save their lives, as the group's 18.2% strikeout rate ranks as the third-worst in the MLB. They still walk batters at a 10.4% rate, so having less than a two-to-one ratio for strikeouts to walks is not a recipe for success. They do limit the long ball, but their 4.75 expected FIP only trails that of the Chicago White Sox for the worst in baseball. Something has to give, and fans have already seen meltdown performances from several relievers in crunch time, raising alarms.

3. Cole Ragans early-season slump

Are you noticing the FIP trend? I love it for evaluating pitchers because it accounts for what is truly important: strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. FIP provides a more accurate representation of a pitcher's performance than the traditional ERA. In that vein, I fully believe that Cole Ragans remains one of the AL's best pitchers, despite his 2-2 record and 3.44 ERA.

His 2.22 FIP is elite, thanks to him striking out 27.8% of opposing batters. Meanwhile, he has improved his control, reducing his walk rate to 7.5%. He also has the demeanor that any team wants from their top pitcher. He stays calm under pressure and is in control from the mound. The Royals are lucky to have him as their ace, as he continues rebounding from that flukey start against the Baltimore Orioles.

4. Kansas City's winless rubber match streak

Author Ian Fleming once wrote, “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action." Well, Mr. Fleming, what is four times? I need to know because the Royals are currently 0-4 in rubber matches this season, and it's starting to feel like a curse.

This isn't a trend that can be explained by FIP, a stat, or any other rational explanation. However, it is concerning since this streak is hard to ignore. The Royals need to find a way to break this pattern before it fulfills itself. Regardless of superstitions, they can't continue to lose those final games. If Kansas City has postseason hopes, they need to learn how to close out a series and step up when necessary.

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