KC Royals Roster: Trying to solve the rotation puzzle

The first 3 spots in KC's 2024 rotation seem easy to predict

It’s probably safe to say that eight pitchers — Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Singer, Lynch, Bowlan, Bubic, and Lyles — are vying for 2024 starting roles. All share a similar trait: they generate a lot of ground balls. 

Ragans will likely compete with Wacha and Singer for the Opening Day start. Ragans was worth 2.4 bWAR this year, mostly due to his 12 Kansas City starts. Although he pitched only 71.2 innings after coming to the Royals, he was dominant with a 2.64 ERA, 11.18 K/9, and 1.074 WHIP. 

Wacha should be familiar to Kansas City fans. He's been pitching in the majors for 11 seasons, most of them with St. Louis. Although he's struggled to prove he’s an innings eater, he does a great job of keeping balls in the park, which will go a long way with the Royals. Wacha could find himself the starter on Opening Day due to his experience.

Its hard to believe Singer hasn’t won the Opening Day job before. He’s been the one pitcher from the 2018 draft class who's developed into a "name" at this point in his career, but since he broke into the majors in 2020, the subsequent Opening Day assignments have fallen to Brad Keller and twice to Zack Greinke.

Singer has been up and down in KC, and this year was not his best season. His WHIP, BB%, and H9 were all up and he finished the season with 0.3 bWAR. But he can be good, and some offseason work on his groundball producing pitches might be what he needs to earn that Opening Day slot.

Will Seth Lugo be the KC Royals' No. 4 starter?

Kansas City paid up for Lugo, giving him a three-year deal potentially worth $45 million. Royals general manager J.J. Picollo is signaling the club intends to use Lugo in the rotation.

The Royals signed Lugo because they like his terrific curveball. But there's a lot of risk involved in signing a 34-year old starting pitcher, especially when he's started only 64 games in his entire eight-year career.

Every bit of value Lugo has as a starter is tied to his 2023 performance with San Diego, where he went a respectable 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA. He also pitched 146.1 innings which, because that figure represents about 23% of his total career innings pitched, is concerning, as is the month he spent on the Injured List with a calf strain.

Will Lugo start for KC this season? Probably. Will he close out the season starting in KC? That's questionable because two big issues are at play. One is that Lugo is older and hasn't had the years of starting experience required to be physically capable of stretching out as a starter for a full season.

The second issue is demand. The Royals paid up to nab Lugo before the top of the free agent board was clear and did so because he was of interest to a lot of teams, and starting pitching is at a premium. With the control Kansas City established in negotiations, he's likely to be a profitable midseason trade piece if he performs well.

If the Royals intend to use Lugo in the long term, it would make far more sense for him to assume a fireman role or bulk man role. He's shown he can throw high-volume innings and his curveball is ideal for shutting down rallies in Kauffman Stadium. Some solid logic supports putting Lugo and his curveball behind a starting fastball pitcher — let a flame thrower pitch a couple of innings, then bring Lugo on for the next six before handing the game over to a closer.

Who has the best shot at Kansas City's final rotation spot?

Kris Bubic was headed in the right direction to start 2023 before injury robbed him of the rest of his season in April. He was getting great separation between his circle changeup and fastball, and his SO/9 was up and his HR/9 and BB/9 both down. 

Bubic’s circle change may be the best pitch the Royals have in their arsenal. But he had Tommy John Surgery in April and probably won't be able to make a start until June or July. 

That leaves Kansas City with Lynch, Lyles, and Bowlan for the final rotation slot. Lynch has had a rough start to his professional career: across parts of three seasons with KC, he has a 5.18 ERA and has struggled to strike out batters and force bad contact. And he's a player the Royals may choose to part with this winter.

Unlike Lynch, Bowlan's clock hasn't really started; he's pitched only twice in the majors. The Royals could leave him in Triple-A to let him develop more; If he doesn't break through, he'll probably find himself part of a trade.

That leaves Jordan Lyles, and there's really no way around him unless he's traded before Opening Day. Lyles' struggles in 2023 were real: he had the worst ERA (6.28) and most losses (17) in the majors, marks that arose both from his own doing and from playing for a bad team.

But Lyles is durable and eats a ton of innings. He's pitched 177 or more innings in each of the last three seasons. And his 1.244 WHIP this year was one of his best. If he can get his HR/9 back down to the 1.31 he put up in Baltimore in 2022, Royals fans should be much happier with him.

Could others find their way into the rotation mix? There have been rumblings that the Royals may still be hunting for another starter, and they certainly have some young players they could move to make that happen. They may also try to flip one or more of their young starters; if they do, expect the return to be one capable of filling a rotation spot. 

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