KC Royals play the waiting game (again) with Kyle Wright

Much attention has been paid to the KC Royals signing free agent pitchers Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo this offseason, and for good reason. Both pitchers have the potential to dramatically improve a pitching staff that struggled mightily in 2023. Not surprisingly, considering he will miss the entire 2024 season with a should injury, the trade for former Braves pitcher Kyle Wright has flown somewhat under the radar. But the Royals have had recent success preaching patience and gambling on injured pitchers. Can those rolls of the dice give Royals fans any insights into how things might play out with Wright?

New KC Royals pitcher Kyle Wright has tremendous upside, but plenty of questions.

A quick glance at Wright's 2022 stat line shows how good he can be: a 21-5 record and 3.19 ERA in 180.1 innings pitched over 30 starts. He also recorded 174 strikeouts and a 1.159 WHIP. My colleague Jake Eubanks put together an excellent deep dive on Wright's stuff shortly after the trade, but Royals fans don't need to be pitching savants to look at those numbers and realize they're very impressive.

Unfortunately, this isn't the whole story of Wright's career. Not counting his September call-up in 2018 and injury-shortened 2023, Wright pitched in parts of 2019-21 with the Braves and wasn't particularly effective. Outside of his fantastic 2022 season, Wright has never finished a big league season with an ERA below five. Nor did he manage to pitch well enough to stick around with major league club in any of those three seasons.

So what did the Royals get with Wright? Is he a fluke, a one-year wonder who will never be able to replicate his 2022 success with Kansas City? Or a pitcher who finally found his footing in 2022 and got bit by bad luck and the injury bug in 2023?

Regardless of the outcome, acquiring Wright for the disappointing Jackson Kowar was worth the risk. The payoff won't reveal itself until Wright returns from injury in 2025, but perhaps Royals fans can speculate on what to expect, based on two other injured former Braves pitchers the Royals gambled on in the recent past.

The Mike Minor reclamation project

Medlen's resume is not an ideal match for Kyle Wright, but the Royals have another alum who is a better fit. Mike Minor was primarily a starter for the Braves from 2010-14, and while he was more prolific and productive than Wright overall, he also had one truly fantastic season for the Braves. In 2013, he went 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA in 32 starts, compiling 204.2 innings pitched, 181 strikeouts, and 1.090 WHIP.

Minor was slowed by shoulder pain the following season, but unlike Wright, he pitched through the season. This turned out to be a mistake. Minor's production dipped and he underwent surgery for a torn labrum early in 2015, costing him the season. The Royals signed him the following offseason, hoping he would follow Medlen's lead and return later that same season to help them defend their championship. That wasn't how it played out.

Suffering from lingering discomfort in his shoulder, Minor missed all of 2016, and the Royals chose to play it safer and use him out of the bullpen in 2017. Minor was up for the challenge, going 6-6 with a 2.55 ERA in 77.2 innings over 65 games. He struck out 88 with a 1.017 WHIP and provided an anchor for a Royals bullpen in transition. Unfortunately, a competitive Royals team fell short of the postseason.

Minor left for Texas in 2018, wanting to start again, and the Royals began their rebuild. To Minor's credit, he succeeded in his second tour as a starter, finishing eighth in the AL Cy Young race and reaching his first All-Star Game in 2019, and he even ended up back in Kansas City in 2021.

Ideally, Wright will exhibit a combination of Medlen's and Minor's comebacks. He won't be available as quickly as Medlen, but if he provides quality pitching for a relevant Royals team, everyone will be happy. Especially if he can match Minor's peak 2019 season in 2025 and beyond.