KC Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. 's MVP case is getting stronger

Win Probability Added (WPA) proves larger hill to climb

For the moment, this is Witt’s highest hurdle. As of this writing, he was tied for sixth in WPA with 2.4 games. (For those unfamiliar with WPA, it is a calculation of the number of games added to the team’s record by the individual’s performance at clutch moments.) Soto leads with 3.9, followed by Corey Seager (3.1), Judge (3.0), Yordan Alvarez (2.5), and Jordan Westburg (2.6)

Once again, however, Witt is moving up the charts at a breakneck rate. His cumulative score for all July games is 0.957, indicating a gain of nearly a full game on his competition. In contrast, Soto has only added 0.545 to his WPA total. Judge, on the other hand, has lost ground in July with a -0.122 score for the month.

If Witt continues to gain on Soto at his current rate of four-tenths of a game per month, he won’t catch the Yankee outfielder by season’s end. But Witt would be right behind Soto in the runner-up position, having surpassed Judge.

WAR exhibits Bobby Witt Jr.'s prowess in all facets

When analyzing player performance, it is important to consider the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) calculation, which has two competing versions — Fangraphs' and Baseball-Reference's. The Fangraphs version already has Witt in first place at 7.0, ahead of Soto and Judge, both at 6.5. Henderson is fourth at 6.2.

Judge leads for the moment in the Baseball-Reference version at 6.7, two ticks ahead of Henderson, with Witt another tick back at 6.4. As in the other categories, however, Witt is playing at a rate that would allow him to overtake both of the players ahead of him within the next few weeks.

One crucial consideration for MVP voters, often left unspoken but still significant, is the impact of postseason performance on a player's candidacy, which currently poses a challenge for Witt. That is the ability to spur your team to a postseason berth. In the non-Covid seasons since 2018, seven of the 10 MVPs—all but Shohei Ohtani twice and Mike Trout once—played for playoff teams.

The Royals, of course, are right on the fringe of that distinction. On Wednesday night, they held onto the final Wild Card spot by just one game over the Boston Red Sox.

Here’s the bottom line. If the vote were taken today, Judge would win the MVP, with Soto, Henderson, and Witt contesting for the second and third positions. However, if the current performance levels of all four players persist, Witt is poised to become the favorite within a month or so.

In that case, the question may revolve around the performance of both Witt and his team. Still, it’s at least plausible to speculate that the 2024 Royals might be grooming their best MVP candidate since Brett 44 seasons ago.

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