KC Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. 's MVP case is getting stronger

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Could Bobby Witt Jr. become the first KC Royals player to win the American League MVP award since since franchise legend George Brett in 1980?

It’s hardly a guarantee; for the moment, the AL frontrunner is the same guy it’s been all season, New York slugger Aaron Judge. Considering the strong competition from players like Yankees outfielder Juan Soto and Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson, Witt's position on the podium in November is not assured.

However, Witt's remarkable performance in July has significantly closed the gap between him and the top contenders for the league's most prestigious honor. If he can keep his recent pace going, it’s entirely plausible he could supplant Judge as the AL MVP favorite.

Some key stats offer hope for Bobby Witt Jr. in MVP race

Recent voting history suggests that MVP voters tend to look for guidance in four statistical categories: two relatively new ones and two more traditional ones. The four most influential stats for MVP voters are slugging, OPS, Win Probability Added, and Wins Above Replacement. During the current month, Witt has gained ground on all of the primary MVP challengers in those four categories.

For the last five full seasons, and considering both the NL and AL, baseball fans have a group of 10 MVPs to examine. Seven of those 10 players led their league in slugging, while the other three players ranked second. The same is true of OPS; seven led their league; three ranked second. Seven led their league in Win Probability Added, one came in second, one in fifth, and the other in ninth.

Wins Above Replacement appears to have been the least decisive among the four stats. Still, five of the MVPs led their league in WAR, one was second, two were third, and one was fifth. The outlier, Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper, did not finish among the top 10 in WAR in his 2021 MVP season.

We can do a pretty fair job of estimating where Witt currently stands for MVP consideration by looking at his standing in each of those four areas. But more importantly, by looking at the rate of recent change, we can project where Witt might stand in each of them by season’s end.

Let's take a closer look...

Slugging percentage lead is within Bobby Witt Jr.'s reach

Through July 24, Witt’s .593 average ranked third among AL batters, trailing Judge (.699) and Soto (.599).

Judge's 106-point lead seems insurmountable. However, Witt is closing fast. Since July 1, he has slugged at a .726 rate, while Judge has fallen back to .475. That has nearly halved the 204 point gap that existed as recently as June 30, when Judge was slugging .738 and Witt was at .534.

If Judge and Witt maintain their current slugging rates from the past three weeks, instead of their season-long averages, Witt is projected to surpass Judge for the slugging lead by late August, with only four or five weeks left to pull away.

Bobby Witt Jr.'s red-hot month at the plate fuels OPS rise

In terms of OPS performance, the situation remains consistent. Currently, Judge maintains a substantial 71 point lead over his teammate Soto (1.106 to 1.035), while Witt holds the third position at .983.

However, let's examine the changes in those numbers since July 1. During that time, Judge has achieved a .920, a performance that is entirely respectable but falls short of his previous pace. Soto has picked up his slugging pace, averaging 1.155 over the same period.

However, Witt has excelled with a 1.423 OPS since July 1. This indicates that Judge's OPS has decreased by 38 points, Soto's has increased by 30, and Witt's has surged by nearly 100 points. Once more, if Witt maintains his pace of gaining 140 points per month on Judge, he is projected to surpass the current leader by the end of August, also outperforming Soto by then.

Win Probability Added (WPA) proves larger hill to climb

For the moment, this is Witt’s highest hurdle. As of this writing, he was tied for sixth in WPA with 2.4 games. (For those unfamiliar with WPA, it is a calculation of the number of games added to the team’s record by the individual’s performance at clutch moments.) Soto leads with 3.9, followed by Corey Seager (3.1), Judge (3.0), Yordan Alvarez (2.5), and Jordan Westburg (2.6)

Once again, however, Witt is moving up the charts at a breakneck rate. His cumulative score for all July games is 0.957, indicating a gain of nearly a full game on his competition. In contrast, Soto has only added 0.545 to his WPA total. Judge, on the other hand, has lost ground in July with a -0.122 score for the month.

If Witt continues to gain on Soto at his current rate of four-tenths of a game per month, he won’t catch the Yankee outfielder by season’s end. But Witt would be right behind Soto in the runner-up position, having surpassed Judge.

WAR exhibits Bobby Witt Jr.'s prowess in all facets

When analyzing player performance, it is important to consider the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) calculation, which has two competing versions — Fangraphs' and Baseball-Reference's. The Fangraphs version already has Witt in first place at 7.0, ahead of Soto and Judge, both at 6.5. Henderson is fourth at 6.2.

Judge leads for the moment in the Baseball-Reference version at 6.7, two ticks ahead of Henderson, with Witt another tick back at 6.4. As in the other categories, however, Witt is playing at a rate that would allow him to overtake both of the players ahead of him within the next few weeks.

One crucial consideration for MVP voters, often left unspoken but still significant, is the impact of postseason performance on a player's candidacy, which currently poses a challenge for Witt. That is the ability to spur your team to a postseason berth. In the non-Covid seasons since 2018, seven of the 10 MVPs—all but Shohei Ohtani twice and Mike Trout once—played for playoff teams.

The Royals, of course, are right on the fringe of that distinction. On Wednesday night, they held onto the final Wild Card spot by just one game over the Boston Red Sox.

Here’s the bottom line. If the vote were taken today, Judge would win the MVP, with Soto, Henderson, and Witt contesting for the second and third positions. However, if the current performance levels of all four players persist, Witt is poised to become the favorite within a month or so.

In that case, the question may revolve around the performance of both Witt and his team. Still, it’s at least plausible to speculate that the 2024 Royals might be grooming their best MVP candidate since Brett 44 seasons ago.

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