KC Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. 's MVP case is getting stronger

Could Bobby Witt Jr. become the first KC Royals player to win the American League MVP award since since franchise legend George Brett in 1980?

It’s hardly a guarantee; for the moment, the AL frontrunner is the same guy it’s been all season, New York slugger Aaron Judge. Considering the strong competition from players like Yankees outfielder Juan Soto and Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson, Witt's position on the podium in November is not assured.

However, Witt's remarkable performance in July has significantly closed the gap between him and the top contenders for the league's most prestigious honor. If he can keep his recent pace going, it’s entirely plausible he could supplant Judge as the AL MVP favorite.

Some key stats offer hope for Bobby Witt Jr. in MVP race

Recent voting history suggests that MVP voters tend to look for guidance in four statistical categories: two relatively new ones and two more traditional ones. The four most influential stats for MVP voters are slugging, OPS, Win Probability Added, and Wins Above Replacement. During the current month, Witt has gained ground on all of the primary MVP challengers in those four categories.

For the last five full seasons, and considering both the NL and AL, baseball fans have a group of 10 MVPs to examine. Seven of those 10 players led their league in slugging, while the other three players ranked second. The same is true of OPS; seven led their league; three ranked second. Seven led their league in Win Probability Added, one came in second, one in fifth, and the other in ninth.

Wins Above Replacement appears to have been the least decisive among the four stats. Still, five of the MVPs led their league in WAR, one was second, two were third, and one was fifth. The outlier, Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper, did not finish among the top 10 in WAR in his 2021 MVP season.

We can do a pretty fair job of estimating where Witt currently stands for MVP consideration by looking at his standing in each of those four areas. But more importantly, by looking at the rate of recent change, we can project where Witt might stand in each of them by season’s end.

Let's take a closer look...