3 pitching targets on Seattle Mariners for KC Royals

The KC Royals need to improve their pitching. Plain and simple.

The team finished the season with the 23rd-highest WHIP (1.41), a fact which was driven by the team issuing the 10th most walks (553) and surrendering the 8th most home runs (207). To improve their starting pitching, the Royals must seek out different pitchers who issue fewer walks and keep the baseball inside the ballpark. 

Many fans will demand that the Royals spend some money and sign top-tier players. And it's certain that if such a move doesn't happen, ownership will be accused of being cheap. But ownership is running a business. Sure, it’s a business built around a game, but it’s a business nonetheless. They have financial interests that preclude them from spending cash they don’t have.

How do the Seattle Mariners and KC Royals as trade partners make sense?

Recent reports suggest the Royals' currently available cash figure is somewhere around $30 million, a number that might bring in one really great free agent but would limit their ability to bulk up their roster. Throwing two-thirds of that down on one starting pitcher simply doesn’t make sense.

More than likely, they are looking to use one-third or half of that amount to entice a veteran to fill an innings role, and they will look for a trade partner—one who needs or desires something they have—and hope they can obtain something of value in return. They were able to swing just such a move during the season, flipping Aroldis Chapman for Cole Ragans.

On the trade market, the Royals don’t have much to work with. They are already operating at a talent deficiency and have little room for error in trading. If they are to make a move that bolsters their 2024 roster, it will mean identifying teams that have a large number of minor-league pitchers or young major-league arms whom they are willing to part with in exchange for anything of value in the Royals organization. That could mean having to move someone from their positional core to improve their starting pitching.

Recent rumors around the Royals suggest that they are talking with the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners are also considered to be in the market for Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Seattle is certainly a team with some strong starting pitching options and if a deal is made, could be in the position to sell a starter. The Mariners have promoted a number of young arms to the major league ranks in recent years: George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, and Logan Gilbert. Could the Royals pry one of them away?

Logan Gilbert seems a long shot for the Royals.

Logan Gilbert is the name that seems to be floating around the rumor mill the most in recent days. Gilbert is a 26-year-old starter with a 96 MPH four-seam fastball that appeals to a lot of baseball fans' expectations of what an ace pitcher does. He throws hard and fast, and he certainly hits the strikeout quota, which will get many fans excited.

He also does a great job of keeping the baseball in the ballpark, with a 1.37 HR/9. Gilbert is entering arbitration for the first time but comes with four full years of control—an extremely appealing fact, even if it means he will cost progressively more over each of the next four years.

From Kansas City's perspective, the most appealing characteristic about Gilbert is the variety of pitches in his arsenal. While many will focus on his above-average fastball velocity, Gilbert has a good handle on controlling speed variation among his pitches. Gilbert’s curveball is a pitch that batters tend to lay off, knowing it’ll result in a fly ball out. His slider and splitter are both on the faster side and deceptively resemble his four-seamer out of his hand. As such, these two pitches also generate an above-average number of fly balls.

In addition, Gilbert started introducing a 94 MPH sinker into his repertoire towards the end of 2023. The Royals have had great success with sinker pitchers producing fly balls or ground outs. As he ages, his pitch variation should age well into a controlled contact style, and his fly ball results would certainly age well at Kauffman Stadium.

The trouble with Gilbert is that he’s currently a core member of the Mariner's rotation. Gilbert’s ability to go deep into games the last two seasons and pitch 375.4 innings would be difficult for a team like the Mariners to give up, and the cost would likely be extremely high for the Royals.

With four years of control remaining on his contract and a strong cast of pitchers already in place, it’s hard to believe the Mariners would part with Gilbert. However, Gilbert is 26 years old, which makes him the oldest of their core starters. If the Mariners sign Yamamoto, Gilbert is probably on the table. If they do not, expect him to remain in Seattle's rotation and possibly be their Opening Day starter.

If the Royals could make it happen, they should want George Kirby.

As the Royals entered the 2023 off-season, the notion of needing to improve starting pitching was clear. For this author, the first thought was: how could we acquire George Kirby?

Kirby is a 25-year-old 6'4" right-hander who fits the Royals needs to a T. In Kirby's second full season with the Mariners, he dominated opponents by controlling the strike zone. Kirby painted the plate like Greg Maddux, minimizing walks (.90 BB/9) and keeping home runs (1.04 HR/9) in check. These are both key factors for Kansas City. Kirby did this with an impressive arsenal of pitches, including a pair of crowd-pleasing 96-mph fastballs: a four-seamer and a sinker. Both pitches result in a high number of fly ball outs that would play for years in Kauffman Stadium.

But Kirby isn't a flamethrower-type pitcher. He is the real deal. Kirby has done well to absorb and develop in the Mariners system, listening and developing a pitch arsenal that not only varies in velocity but also in movement. He has demonstrated every bit of the mental aptitude the Royals have long sought from their starting pitchers. Although he's managed to produce high strike counts, he has demonstrated he understands the importance of going deep into ball games by pitching for bad contact. Kirby is a retro pitcher like Jack Morris, Greg Maddux, or Zach Greinke.

Kirby's sweeping slider (86 mph) is probably his best pitch, having significant depth across the zone and producing a high number of ground ball outs. Kirby throws an 85-MPH curve that batters just take; it is simply too hard of a pitch to track. Batters also tend to lay off his 87-MPH sinking change-up, which also results in a high ground-ball rate. Like Greinke, Kirby has a sense of humor. This season, he began toying with a 75-mph knuckleball, a disgusting pitch that looks like it was pulled straight from the Eephus playbook of Greinke.

It's unclear what it would take to obtain Kirby from the Mariners. If the Royals could obtain him, they should strongly consider meeting Seattle's demands.