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3 KC Royals who will make the 2024 Opening Day roster but won’t last the season
So many things can change between March and September.
The KC Royals returned to the diamond last week down in Surprise, Arizona. While few things bring me more joy than hearing broadcasters Ryan Lefebvre and Jake Eisenberg back in the booth, I am so excited for Opening Day 2024.
The Royals' busiest offseason in recent memory saw more than $400 million in payroll investments, most of that coming from shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.'s 11-year extension worth $288.7 million. Adding veterans Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to the rotation addressed major issues for Kansas City in 2023, fueling optimism about the Royals on a national scale.
Which KC Royals will survive the 2024 season, from beginning to end?
Experienced MLB fans can easily discern spring training talk from reality. Kin to football coaches saying a player is in the best shape of his life, everything feels great and anything is possible before the season starts. Right now, the Royals are healthy and fresh, the AL Central seems even weaker than usual, and the arid Arizona air has balls sailing like no other.
All that to say, everything is a best-case scenario for any baseball team during this time of year. That was the case with the 2023 Royals as well. Sure, they were not perfect, but fans expected big things from Witt and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, but those expectations spread to those who never came close to living up to them. 10 players on the 2023 Opening Day roster did not even finish the season in Kansas City, with only 11 players from that roster currently listed on Kansas City's 40-man roster. The team had a ton of turnover this offseason, and rightfully so.
Not every player is going to perform well, stay healthy, or be a combination of the two. That is why baseball rosters are so deep, with replacement options waiting in the wings. As such, no MLB fan should expect every player who starts the season on the roster to be there at the season's end. For the Royals, there are a handful of options who may not finish 2024 in powder blues.
UTL Garrett Hampson
When the Royals signed Garrett Hampson this offseason, it was considered a lackluster opening move. The value was there, especially after his 2023 season, where he posted a 101 wRC+ and .729 OPS. Hampson was not going to be a game-changing addition to any MLB roster, but the Royals signing him to a one-year deal worth $2 million is a move that feels apt for Kansas City. He had a career year last season, but he will need to prove it was not an outlier in 2024.
Hampson's path to staying in Kansas City relies not only on him performing well but also on others not meeting expectations. Hampson's calling card is that he can play in the middle infield and outfield, relieving starters like Witt and centerfielder Kyle Isbel. But many prospective players could be vying for Hampson's roster spot later this summer.
Players like outfielder Drew Waters and utilityman Nick Loftin are the first two players that come to mind. They will likely start the season in Triple-A Omaha, as they have minor-league options remaining. They, and any others like them, will have to play their way onto the Royals roster after the season starts. Hampson's defensive versatility gives him a leg up on the competition, but he is not the only player who can play multiple positions.
I am rooting for the late-blooming utilityman in Kansas City, his third team in as many seasons. He has elite speed, an asset that will do damage in the Royals lineup. But that only works if he produces at the plate. Hampson will need to be an on-base machine, keeping the lineup moving as he did for the Miami Marlins last season. If the bat falters at all, his lack of options will spell his doom in Kansas City.
RHP Carlos Hernández
There was a time in 2023 when Carlos Hernández looked like the Royals' closer of the future. Yet, his quick return to dismal production proved Kansas City should have traded him when they had the chance. Now, heading into 2024, this season feels like make-or-break for the Venezuelan pitcher.
His shaky health this spring only piles on to his rocky 2023 performance. Royals general manager J.J. Picollo said the fireballer is dealing with a sore shoulder this spring and hasn't pitched from a mound in weeks, according to MLB.com's Anne Rogers. She said "he’s close to his first bullpen and should be able to get 6-7 live outings before the season," but any setback is a major concern for Hernández. Shoulder injuries can spell trouble for a fastball-first pitcher like him, but hopefully, it is only a bump in the road heading into Opening Day.
Hernández still has plenty of team control, not hitting free agency until 2028. He also has one minor-league option remaining, meaning Kansas City could demote him if it came to that. But, considering Kansas City's depth of right-handed relievers right now, the team should be proactive in trading him if the opportunity arises.
This all rests on his not having a future in Kansas City, something that I hope he recaptures in 2024. A fastball-heavy bullpen of guys like Hernández, Will Klein, and Steven Cruz would be volatile but very fun to watch. But if Hernández falters, Kansas City should learn from its mistakes and move on.
RHP Jordan Lyles
Does veteran Jordan Lyles have value in the rotation? Yes, to a degree. Does the $8.5 million remaining on his deal make him an unattractive cut or trade option? It certainly does. But there are so many starting options vying for Lyles' rotation spot that his finishing 2024 in Kansas City feels unlikely.
Fans' expectations for Lyles are low in 2024 after a substandard 2023 performance. Sure, he led the team with 177 2/3 innings and 31 starts, but what happened in that body of work did not live up to his two-year, $17 million deal. He posted an ugly 6.28 ERA, the only MLB pitcher with an ERA higher than 6 in at least 130 innings pitched. His fastball lost some life, and his secondary offerings are all below average, according to FanGraphs.
Lyles hasn't made any fans during his Kansas City tenure, and it is hard to blame Royals fans for wanting him gone. I get it; he still somehow posted a positive fWAR last year, thanks to the Royals playing him deep in his starts. But, whether it be his lackluster pitch arsenal or allowing a career-high 39 home runs, any good Lyles did was quickly forgotten about.
Like Hampson, Lyles has to both produce and hope another option doesn't emerge. Pitchers Daniel Lynch IV, Alec Marsh, and Angel Zerpa are just a few starters pushing for that fifth spot in the rotation. All of those pitchers are younger and more controllable than Lyles, giving them the edge in the long-term picture. If Kansas City sees Lyles slipping and replaceable by an internal option, they should jettison him. That is the baseball business for you.
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