Opening Day starter should be easy choice for KC Royals

Three pitchers could be considered. One stands out.

Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

Roster selection, position battles, and a heavy dose of key questions will all be front and center when the Kansas City Royals begin spring training on February 12. Lurking not far below the surface of those issues will be a decision for manager Matt Quatraro to make before his club breaks camp and heads home for its March 27 regular season opener against the Cleveland Guardians — who will the Royals' Opening Day starter be?

The choice comes down to three pitchers, all of whom played instrumental roles in the Royal resurgence that led to KC's first playoff appearance since the 2015 World Series. And while Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Cole Ragans are all worthy of the honor, Quatraro's choice shouldn't be difficult to make.

Lugo. Hands down. And here's why.

Seth Lugo deserves to be Kansas City's Opening Day starter

Some still insist in good faith that Ragans is the ace of Quatraro's rotation. Yes, he's good and reliable, but the truth is that no KC starter's body of work was better than Lugo's last season. In only his second campaign back in a big league rotation after spending most of the previous five seasons in the New York Mets' bullpen, Lugo went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA for the Royals. He led the starters in wins, innings pitched (206.2) and WHIP (1.09).

And those 16 wins — the most of any Royals pitcher since Jason Vargas posted 18 in 2017 — were second only to Atlanta's Chris Sale and Detroit's Tarik Skubal, both of whom won 18 and the Cy Young Award in their respective leagues. Lugo finished second to Skubal in American League voting.

Lugo's 7.88 K/9 proves he didn't overpower hitters, but his stingy 2.09 BB/9 helps explain his low ERA and stellar overall performance. And anyone tempted to play down how good he was by citing the disparity between his first and second-half stats — he went 11-4 with a 2.48 ERA before the All-Star Break and 5-5, 3.84 after it — ignores his 2-1 record and 2.28 ERA over the regular season's final month.

Lugo's numbers alone should give him the edge for the Opening Day assignment. But there's more.

Why shouldn't Michael Wacha start for the KC Royals on Opening Day?

If it weren't for Lugo, Wacha would be an excellent choice. Throwing the first official pitch of the season would be a nice reward for the right-hander who agreed in early November to return to Kansas City on a new multi-year deal. Despite a pedestrian first half during which he went 6-6 with a 3.83 ERA and missed almost three weeks with a foot injury, Wacha finished the season 13-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, a fine aggregate result fueled by an excellent 7-2, 2.79 post-All-Star Break effort.

But as good as they are, and as good as they might have been had he not spent so much time on the Injured List, Lugo's numbers don't stack up evenly with Lugo's.

Why shouldn't Cole Ragans start for the KC Royals on Opening Day?

The choice of Lugo over Ragans is easier than that of Lugo over Wacha. Although some were quick to bestow "ace" status upon him after he went 5-2 with a 2.64 ERA in 12 down-the-stretch starts two seasons ago — a surprising performance that proved just how wise general manager J.J. Picollo was to trade Aroldis Chapman to the Texas Rangers to get him — Ragans' 2024 record fell short of Lugo's.

In his first full season with the Royals, Ragans started only one less game than Lugo, but won five fewer times. His 3.14 ERA was excellent, but not as low as Lugo's, and although his 10.77 K/9 was better than Lugo's 7.88, his 3.24 BB/9 wasn't nearly as good as Lugo's 2.09. He gave up 19 more walks than Lugo in 20.1 fewer innings.

At the end of the day, then, Quatraro's decision should be clear and not difficult to reach. Seth Lugo needs to be Kansas City's Opening Day starter.

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