New projection puts KC Royals top prospect in the majors in 2025

Knowing precisely when Jac Caglianone — the Kansas City Royals' first pick in the 2024 amateur draft and already its No. 1 prospect per MLB Pipeline — will make his major league debut is a subject near and dear to the hearts of KC fans. At least one prominent baseball projection system believes it has the answer — and it's a shocker.

Steamer, highlighted annually by FanGraphs, recently suggested Caglianone will play for the Royals next season. When and where he'll debut isn't part of the prediction, but Steamer says Caglianone will play 15 big league games in 2025 and slash .200/.243/.304, homer once, and drive in 5 runs.

The forecast, glum in its projected numbers that fly in the face of Caglianone's "sure-thing" status, bucks the conventional wisdom that his major league debut won't come for at least another year, maybe even two. Rushing hot prospects to baseball's highest level used to be more acceptable, but too often leads to bad results. Just ask the Texas Rangers, whose decision to put pitching phenom David Clyde on a super-fast track — his first major league pitch was his first professional pitch — probably had much to do with his premature baseball flameout.

The Royals don't want to make that kind of mistake with Caglianone. Despite some fans' desire to find out if the slugger could beef up a Royal lineup in need of more pop — especially in the middle — promoting Caglianone so soon isn't an idea to which KC's front office should devote more than a second or two.

Moving Caglianone along so fast just doesn't make good baseball sense.

Steamer's Jac Caglianone projection doesn't match the circumstances

Some Royals fans clamored for Caglianone's immediate promotion when rosters expanded in September, but fortunately, the club resisted any temptation it might have had to make those dreams come true. Kansas City needed stretch-run talent, not an inexperienced recent draftee, and bumping Caglianone from High-A ball to the majors would have resembled a stunt more than anything else.

Caglianone, remember, signed in late July after the Royals grabbed him with the Draft's sixth overall pick, just in time to report to High-A Quad Cities and get in 29 games before finishing his short first pro season by playing 21 times in the Arizona Fall League. His numbers with the River Bandits (.241/.302/.388, two homers, 14 RBI) and then with the Surprise Saguaros (.236/.300/.449, five homers, 21 RBI) overwhelmed no one, but demonstrated his potential.

They were not, however, good enough to warrant speeding him to Kansas City for any reason, and probably not quite good enough to justify moving him up to Double-A Northwest Arkansas to begin the 2025 campaign. He should get more High-A at-bats before venturing upward, then spend time seasoning at Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha before making the leap to Kauffman Stadium.

Why Steamer, which bases so much of its predictions of the future on performances of the past, has Caglianone reaching Kauffman Stadium so early is a bit befuddling. Unless he puts up incredible numbers even the Royals can't reasonably be anticipated to expect after his brief 2024 introduction to pro ball, he'll stay in the minors in 2025.

And that, for now, is where he should be.