New 2025 projections forecast a big step back for KC Royals star Bobby Witt Jr.

Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.'s 2024 season was the best ever for a player in the franchise. Period. End of discussion. The 24-year-old phenom did things on the field that Kansas City fans haven't seen since the heyday of franchise icon George Brett. Whether through an uber-productive bat, a glove worth its weight in gold, or elite speed on the basepaths, Witt Jr. exceeded all expectations in the season following his massive extension.

Witt Jr.'s 2024 season, marked by a franchise-record 10.4 fWAR, will earn him plenty of MVP consideration, even if he ultimately falls short in the voting later this month. A second-place finish would not only set a new high watermark for a modern Royals player, but also earn the franchise a valuable accolade.

Yet, all that goodwill couldn't save Witt Jr. from a projected step backward in 2025, according to new forecasts.

Earlier this month, FanGraphs published their 2025 Steamer projections, which forecast a significant dip in Witt's value. The system projects Witt will be worth 6.9 fWAR in 2025, ranking him third in all of baseball and third among AL position players. Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson leads the projected fWAR race at 7.5, with New York Yankees slugger and probable 2024 AL MVP Aaron Judge in second.

Bobby Witt Jr. is a perennial MVP candidate for the KC Royals

Witt Jr.'s batting title in 2024 made him the first Royals player to claim the honor since 1990, and his projected .297 batting average for 2025 would put the slugger in the thick of that race once again. Steamer also projects that Witt Jr.’s 30/30 streak will continue, forecasting 31 home runs and 36 stolen bases. In 2024, Witt became the first shortstop ever to achieve consecutive 30/30 seasons, so he’s certainly up to the task.

MLB calls Steamer "one of the most accurate predictors in the industry," so these projections shouldn’t be taken lightly. The system was developed by teacher Jared Cross and two of his former students, and is one of many projection models available on the stat-centric website FanGraphs.

Steamer’s reputation for accuracy comes from its sophisticated approach to data and its emphasis on balance. Unlike simpler projection systems, Steamer goes beyond raw stats — it considers the underlying processes driving those numbers, such as a player’s plate discipline, contact quality, and baserunning efficiency. The system also adjusts for context, accounting for differences in players' environments, like home parks, and league-wide trends, such as rising strikeout rates. By weighing these elements, Steamer provides forecasts that are not only statistically sound but also closely aligned with realistic expectations.

For fans and analysts, these projections serve as a baseline for understanding potential performance — helpful for fantasy baseball, trade evaluations, or simply setting expectations.