Most painful trade Royals could make at Winter Meetings to cash in on starter surplus

Today is the day. The most anticipated stretch of the offseason begins, as executives across the league congregate in one spot for next few days, meaning the possibility of big deals occurring only gets stronger.

And for the Royals, there are plenty of big time rumors surrounding them, as their hunt for offensive impact could result in them making some major moves.

To make a major move and bring in a major asset, you have to give up a major asset, or a strong collection of assets at least, in return.

Over the past week or so, one of those major assets that's been creating quite the buzz, after it was revealed that J.J. Picollo views no one as totally off limits, is Cole Ragans.

While Picollo also revealed that it would take a big return for him to trade his ace and MLB.com insider Anne Rogers reported Friday that a deal for Ragans is unlikely and that "the Royals would simply have to be blown away by an offer", if a crazy deal like this is going to happen there's a good chance it could be during the Winter Meetings.

However, if a shocking Ragans blockbuster does happen to occur, while it might bring in a major talent to Kauffman Stadium, it will be equally as painful for Royals fans to watch their ace leave.

A Cole Ragans trade would be the most painful Winter Meetings deal for Royals fans

There's not much that's been left unsaid about just how good a pitcher Ragans has been since arriving in Kansas City back in June of 2023.

Not only has he led the line for the Royals' staff, he's been one of the best left-handed starters in all of baseball.

Even after a less than ideal season plagued by multiple stints on the injured list, Ragans still ranks within the top 10 amongst left-handed pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched since June 15, 2023, in ERA (7th) and WHIP (7th) and top three in FIP (3rd), BAA (2nd), K/9 (2nd) and HR/9 (3rd).

And even during his nightmare 2025 campaign, he showed plenty of reason as to why he was still a force to reckoned with. His 38.1% K-rate placed him in the 100th percentile of league arms, his 34.8% K-rate landed him the 95th percentile and his xERA of 2.67 and xBA of .189 ranked in the 96th percentile and 97th percentile respectively.

Trading him is likely not something Royals want to do, however if the right deal comes along, perhaps like the mock trade proposed by ESPN's Buster Olney this past week for Ketel Marte, Royals fans have to be prepared for the unexpected.

Because the other more favorable trade chips in the starting rotation have their reasons for potential suitors to hesitate.

Kris Bubic may be an All-Star that with one year left of control and doesn't carry the financial burden that would deter smaller market teams from potentially getting involved. However, his lack of team control could work against the Royals, as some teams will value that control over everything. Then, there's the fact that his season ended prematurely due to a rotator cuff injury last season that could have teams worrying for his long-term health.

Then, there's the pair of rookie starting standouts in Noah Cameron and Ryan Bergert who certainly made a statement in their debut seasons and offer plenty of control, but could have some reasons to question if their 2025 seasons are sustainable in the long-terms future.

Cameron and his sub-3.00 ERA may've been able capture a fourth place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting this year, however some of his other stats weren't as strong.

He was striking hitters out at a 20.5%% clip, placing him in just the 33rd percentile of league arms and his 7.7% walk rate was pretty mediocre-looking, sitting in the 55th percentile. Then, there's the expected metrics which were particularly underwhelming as well, with his 4.07 xERA and .246 xBA, sitting in the 45th and 43rd percentile respectively.

Then, there's Bergert, who posted a respectable 3.66 ERA between the Royals and Padres. However, after moving to Kansas City, he only posted a 4.43 ERA with his new squad. There's then the underlying metrics. His 22.6% K-rate sat in the 49th percentile, his 23.9% whiff rate in the 38th percentile and his 10.8% walk rate sat in the 13th percentile.

His expected metrics were also a cause for potential concern with a 34th percentile xERA and average-looking 56th percentile xBA.

This isn't to say that these three names are untradeable, however, the reality is Ragans has far less question marks surrounding him. There could be a possibility that teams with valauble offensive assets could set the bar high, leaving the Royals in a real conundrum.

The odds still seem slim and the likelihood of other names out of the rotation getting are probably far more likely than Ragans' exit.

However, these rumors aren't coming out of thin air. Picollo said it himself, it would take a big return to get a deal like this done, but what if a team is willing to offer that worthy return that blows the Royals away? They have to make cuts in the rotation, right?

Fans need to be prepared for anything no matter how painful the extreme might be. Don't expect it, but don't put yourself in a position where you could be left with jaw on the floor and can't find it, because crazier and more unexpected deals have happened in the past.