MLB insider identifies one perfect Royals' buy-low outfielder and one to avoid

The Kansas City Royals are heading into the 2027 offseason with only one of their outfield spots locked up. Currently, only right field is occupied, and the Royals will need to rectify that this offseason.

Needing to find valuable players to play in both left and center field won't be an easy task for J.J. Picollo, especially this offseason. The free agent class is very weak compared to recent years. While the Royals could turn to the trade market for one of those positions, they will likely need to address the other with a free agent.

The top free-agent outfielders are going to be Randy Arozarena and Seiya Suzuki, but they will have plenty of teams vying for their services this offseason, and the Royals could get priced out. Ian Happ is another name they could look to sign, but even he will have a few suitors. What the Royals might end up doing is turning to a buy-low candidate.

The Athletic's Jim Bowden listed two as fits for the Royals this offseason in his free-agent contract and team predictions. One is someone Picollo should consider; the other he should go nowhere near.

One smart buy-low outfielder Royals should sign

The first name Bowden suggested as a fit for Kansas City is Daulton Varsho. The 30-year-old started his career with the Arizona Diamondbacks before being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays before the 2023 season. He spent the next three and a half seasons north of the border, but was dealt to the Houston Astros at the trade deadline this season.

Varsho really struggled in 2026, hitting just .221 this season with a .637 OPS. He was a negative asset for Houston after being dealt, hitting a lowly .172 with a .535 OPS in 41 games. His previous three seasons with the Blue Jays suggest he is a much better player than he showed last season.

The lefty has never been a plus hitter. He hit .221 from 2023-2025 and had a .716 OPS and 96 OPS+. He still has some pop, though, because he had a slugging percentage of .428. One thing Varsho does extremely well is defense.

Varsho won the AL Gold Glove in center field in 2024. He was in the 85th percentile or higher in Fielding Run Value every season from 2022 to 2025. Even in a down year in 2026, he was still in the 71st percentile.

On defense alone, Varsho is going to be a 2+ WAR player, but in the seasons he has been close to average offensively, he has been worth almost five WAR. Bowden predicted a one-year, $8 million contract for the lefty. That would be very manageable for the Royals, and if he can even be worth three WAR, he's earned that contract.

One buy-low outfielder the Royals need to avoid

Bowden also wrote that New York Yankees center fielder Trent Grisham would be a fit for the Royals, but also predicted he would get a one-year, $12 million contract this offseason. Grisham isn't a player the Royals should be trying to rely on next season, and especially not at that price.

On the surface, Grisham looks like a much better offensive option for the Royals, but he had just one year of good offense, 2025, and that was in Yankee Stadium. He hit 34 home runs that season, but if all of them were in Kauffman, it would have only been 25. Besides 2025, Grisham has been a below-average offensive contributor. From 2019 to 2024, he had a 94 OPS+, and in 2026 he had a 95 OPS+.

Grisham also does not provide the defensive value that Varsho would provide. The last two seasons, Grisham has been worth -3 and -5 Fielding Run Value, respectively. He was a positive defender in 2024, but played less than 500 innings in the field. 2023 was the last time he was a full-time player and a positive defender.

For the price Bowden is predicting, the Royals shouldn't be anywhere near Grisham. Even if they can get him at the price predicted for Varsho, they should choose Varsho. Grisham has only shown one season of being a reliable center fielder, and paying him enough to be a starter should be a big no this offseason.

Hopefully, the Royals don't need to rely on buy-low candidates next season, as it really didn't work in the past. It does seem like, unless they do something drastic, that could be the case. If they do, it should be Varsho.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow