Major projection system gives KC Royals a disrespectfully small chance of playoff return

The Kansas City Royals reached historic highs in 2024, bouncing back from a franchise-record-tying 106-loss season in 2023. But baseball is all about what a team does in the present and future, and the major projection systems haven’t been particularly optimistic about Kansas City’s chances of returning to the postseason in 2025.

First, FanGraphs projected the Royals had a 42.8% chance of making the playoffs, placing them third in the AL Central. Now, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections have been released, and they paint an even more conservative outlook for Kansas City.

PECOTA pours cold water on KC Royals return to playoffs

PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, projects the Royals to finish second in the AL Central with 81 wins — good for ninth in the AL and the lowest projected total for any second-place division finisher. Their playoff odds sit at just 34.8%, a notable drop from FanGraphs’ projection.

PECOTA’s methodology accounts for both divisional and Wild Card chances, with the Royals’ path to the postseason largely hinging on winning the AL Central. The system gives Kansas City a 22.2% chance of securing the division, a feat they’ve only accomplished once in franchise history (2015). Their ten-year divisional drought is the second-longest in the AL, trailing only the Detroit Tigers.

Meanwhile, PECOTA projects the Minnesota Twins to win the AL Central with 86 wins and a 60.5% chance of reaching the playoffs. While the Twins have claimed nine division titles since 2002, they’ve turned just one of those into an ALCS appearance, coming that same year.

It’s important to remember that PECOTA is a projection model — not a prediction. The system evaluates past performance, underlying metrics, and expected trends to forecast the most probable outcomes. It accounts for factors like regression, injury history, and player development to estimate whether a team is likely to sustain success or experience a downturn.

However, as Royals fans saw in 2024, projections don’t always dictate reality. Kansas City was widely expected to finish in the AL Central basement last season, yet they secured a playoff berth while preseason favorite Minnesota missed the cut. The math may not favor the Royals, but there’s a 162-game season ahead where anything can happen — something Kansas City fans know all too well.