KC Royals Prospects: MLB Pipeline not losing faith in club's former top draft pick

Close observers of MLB Pipeline, a top evaluator and rater of each major league team's top prospects, may have noticed a slight change in the Kansas City Royals' rankings. Without fanfare, outfielder Gavin Cross has moved up to fifth on the organization's Pipeline Top 30 list.

That might seem strange. Cross, well into his fourth professional season after KC took him with its first pick in the 2022 amateur draft, hasn't advanced beyond Double-A ball. And that's despite the fact he wasted no time confirming his reputation as an excellent collegiate hitter was well-deserved — playing a mere three games in the Arizona Complex League and then 26 at Single-A Columbia after he signed and before the 2022 season ended, Cross slashed .312/.437/.633 with eight homers and 25 RBI. Success seemed something he couldn't avoid.

But three seasons later, and contrary to his potential and the promise of that short 2022 campaign, Cross isn't sizing up as immediate help for the offensively-challenged Royals. Yes, he was good last season at Double-A Northwest Arkansas, where in 101 games he hit .261 with a .342 OBP and established career highs in homers (15), RBI (59), and stolen bases (30). But in 94 games at Quad Cities and two at Northwest Arkansas the season before, he homered 12 times and drove in 58 runs, but barely escaped dropping below the Mendoza Line with a .203 average.

And this season, he's batting only .199 and his OBP is a distressing .241. That he's homered eight times, and appears with 32 RBI to be on pace to break his career-best in that category, is somewhat encouraging.

But Cross isn't ready to provide the pop Kansas City needs. His progress, at least statistically speaking, isn't what many hoped for. That hasn't, though, convinced MLB Pipeline to sour on him.

So, why the upward movement for a prospect with Cross's spotty results?

KC Royals prospect Gavin Cross advances in MLB Pipeline rankings

Understanding why Cross moved up from his No. 8 2024 Pipeline ranking requires knowing what helped precipitate Pipeline's shuffle of its Kansas City prospect ratings. At least in part, he can thank Royals rookie Noah Cameron — promoted to the majors for the first time this season, Cameron, 2-4 with a 2.56 ERA, has apparently pitched enough to lose his former No. 5 Kansas City Pipeline prospect status.

Probably foremost in Pipeline's thinking, though, is what Cross is capable of. Important to realize is that after hitting .182 this April and an even worse .152 in May, he bounced back with a .265/.321/.469 line in June. And in his first two games since Northwest Arkansas reactivated him from a short stay on the Injured List Sunday, he's 5-for-9 with a double, home run, and three RBI through Wednesday.

There's more to justify keeping Cross near the top of Kansas City's prospect rankings. Not all of his periods of concern are of his own making. Take, for example, that poor 2023 season, all but two games of which he spent at High-A Quad Cities. He seemed to be recovering from April and May battles with his bat when the Royals bumped him up in August for his first exposure to Double-A ball. But a long bout with Ricky Mountain Spotted Fever limited him to just two hitless games for Northwest Arkansas and forced him out of action for most of August and all of September.

And this season? He's slumped, but also been injured. And he isn't that far removed from the .333/.412/.556 and .291/.364/.392 lines he put together in May and July of 2024, respectively, and those career home run, RBI, and steals highs with which he concluded his improved 2024 campaign.

Is Pipeline's assessment of Cross accurate? Only time will tell, however, but the Royals will be thrilled if he lives up to his new ranking.