Is it still too early to get overly excited about Kris Bubic?

Heading into the 2025 season, the Kansas City Royals were expected to lean heavily on their starting pitching — and for good reason. With Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo coming off Cy Young-caliber campaigns, and steady veterans like Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen rounding out the rotation, this group looked built to carry the club.

Yet through the first month of the season, it’s not Ragans or Lugo commanding the spotlight — it’s Kris Bubic. After spending 2024 in the bullpen while working his way back from Tommy John surgery, Bubic entered the spring as a question mark. Could he handle a starter’s workload again? Could he replicate the effectiveness he showed in short stints over a full turn in the rotation?

Five starts into 2025, those questions have been answered with authority. On April 22, Bubic delivered his most dominant outing yet — seven shutout innings against the Rockies, allowing just four hits, issuing no walks, and striking out six. A strong performance that lowered his season ERA to a sparkling 1.45 across 31 innings, with a solid 2-1 record and 33 strikeouts. Quietly but confidently, Bubic is becoming one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season.

It's okay to be excited about Kris Bubic and still not fully sold.

Bubic’s fast start isn’t just about the box score — there are real improvements beneath the surface. He’s commanding the zone better, his strikeout rate is climbing, and he's getting punchouts with all of his pitches.

But a closer look at the peripherals suggests that while Bubic is in fact for real, there may be some natural regression ahead. His expected ERA (xERA) sits at 3.15, nearly two runs higher than his current mark — still strong, but a reminder that elite fielding behind him has played a role. His walk rate is up to 7.1%, and he’s allowed a max exit velocity of 114.4 mph, placing him in the bottom six percent of the league. Additionally, his last two outings have produced twice as many fly balls than ground balls — a risky trend if it continues.

Still, none of this undermines what Bubic is doing. He’s healthy. He’s confident. And right now, he’s pitching like someone who belongs in every early-season breakout conversation.

Whether or not Bubic can maintain this level of dominance, what’s undeniable is that the Royals may have unearthed a new weapon in a rotation already rich with talent. If Bubic even stays close to this level, Kansas City’s pitching depth could be among the best in the American League. And if he does continue at this pace? Don’t be surprised if you hear his name in the Cy Young conversation.