FanGraphs praises Royals as 2025 trade deadline’s biggest AL winners

The 2025 season is nearly over for most of MLB, and unfortunately, the Kansas City Royals are not planning on October baseball. A trip to sunny Sacramento and three games against the Athletics will mark their season's end.

The 2025 campaign had plenty of ups and downs, on both an individual and team level. One of the most hotly debated pivot points among fans was how the team should approach the 2025 trade deadline. Considering the team's issues, place in the standings, and pending free agents were only a few of the factors that Kansas City had to weigh in deciding whether to be buyers or sellers this past summer.

Royals general manager J.J. Picollo and the Royals front office ultimately decided to invest in the 2025 team and be buyers. Not excessive, all-in, franchise-changing buyers, but buyers nonetheless.

They acquired players who helped both the 2025 and 2026 Royals, but the group wasn't enough to push Kansas City into the playoffs. But the group, featuring outfielder Mike Yastrzemski and pitchers Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek, certainly did their part in helping Kansas City win.

In fact, FanGraphs' Michael Baumann ran the numbers and showed the Royals benefited the most from their trade acquisitions at the trade deadline in the AL.

The Royals midseason moves were the right ones, according to FanGraphs.

Baumann had a lengthy process in judging the trade deadline nearly two months after its completion, but the results have Kansas City looking smart.

The Royals' six players added in July totaled 2.6 fWAR in their time with the Royals, good for the most in AL and second-most in all of MLB. Sure, this is a counting stat, and the average WAR per player doesn't top the AL field, but it still speaks to what should be considered a solid trade deadline by the Royals.

Kolek was the most valuable player of the six with 0.9 fWAR in only five starts for Kansas City. He was closely trailed by Yastrzemski (0.8 fWAR), Bergert (0.7 fWAR), and utilityman Adam Frazier (0.6 fWAR). The lone blemishes were unproductive players like pitcher Bailey Falter (0.0 fWAR) and outfielder Randal Grichuk (-0.4 fWAR).

"Was that enough to put the Royals back in the playoff hunt? No, and it wasn’t especially close, even in the depressingly winnable AL Central. But J.J. Picollo had one of the best hit rates of any GM this deadline, so bully for him.

I’m sure that in time we’ll look back on the 2025 deadline and pick winners and losers based on how various prospects developed, or how various newcomers impacted this year’s postseason. But that’s the future’s problem. In the meantime, congratulations to the Brewers and Royals."

Michael Baumann, FanGraphs

Yastrzemski and Frazier are both pending free agents, and their success raises the question of whether they will re-sign with Kansas City this coming winter. There is a case and role for both players, even if Frazier's production in 2025 stands in the shadow of his struggles in 2024 for the Royals. Yastrzemski was a productive leadoff man for Kansas City for much of the season, after infielder Jonathan India was struggling and needed a push further down the order.

Grichuk has a mutual option for 2026, and Falter is arbitration eligible, but them coming back to Kansas City in 2026 feels far from probable. The outfielder hasn't been the southpaw-smasher Kansas City hoped he would be, and Falter showed few positives in his limited action before landing on the injured list. Neither player has any remaining options, and would be more expensive than their 2025 production warrants. But never say never in baseball.

The two trade deadline gems, Bergert and Kolek, came in one unexpected move but may have ramifications for years. Both players are entering their physical primes, are in their first few years of team control, and had some excellent starts in Kansas City.

They will factor into the Royals' rotation race once the team reports to Surprise next spring, and how they have changed since coming from the San Diego Padres will be closely examined this offseason.

If Kansas City snuck into a Wild Card spot, this trade deadline would have been a big reason why. But the existing roster was not enough in the end, and Kansas City is heading home soon. But it is not for a lack of midseason trying from the front office.