Breaking down the KC Royals starting rotation: Who’s a lock and who’s fighting for a spot?

Entering the 2025 campaign, the Kansas City Royals have a few spots on their active roster with uncertainties — namely, the outfield and second base. One spot that doesn't have anywhere near as many question marks is the starting rotation.

The starting-five is going to look a lot like it did last year, but that's because there's no real reason to mess with a good thing. In 2024, the Royals' starting rotation finished second in all of baseball in ERA (3.55), second in HR/9 (0.96), and third in strand rate (75.2%).

Cole Ragans is the undisputed staff ace, and Seth Lugo is right there with him in terms of reliability and raw talent. His late-career shift from the bullpen back to the rotation has worked wonders for the player and the Royals.

Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen were both re-signed this offseason, giving the Royals a top-four that can be comfortably leaned on over the course of a full 162-game season. The final spot in the rotation is where the uncertainty is.

Breaking down the KC Royals starting rotation: Who’s a lock and who’s fighting for a spot?

• Cole Ragans - LHP
• Seth Lugo - RHP
• Michael Wacha - RHP
• Michael Lorenzen - RHP
• Kris Bubic - LHP

This is the group of five starters the Royals should roll with to open the season. Bubic, a former first-round pick of the Royals, spent last year pitching exclusively in relief after recovering from a Tommy John surgery, but he looked outstanding in his 27-game stint.

With a return to the rotation in the cards, Bubic is easily the best option for the final spot. He had a miniscule 1.95 FIP across 30.1 innings last year pitching out of the 'pen, but he's clearly the most talented option to round out the quintet.

Other options include Alec Marsh, Daniel Lynch IV, and Jonathan Bowlan. Marsh appeared to have the inside track at securing a spot in the rotation, but his 4.53 ERA and 4.34 FIP across 25 starts last year pales in comparison to the full-season numbers Bubic appeared to be on track for.

To his credit, Lynch has been quietly putting together a very strong spring so far, posting a sparkling 1.29 ERA through his first seven innings on the mound. He's also struck out six batters while walking none.

As of right now, it feels like Marsh and Lynch would be better served to begin the year in Triple-A. They're both capable of being big-league caliber starters, but their exclusion from the season-opening rotation is due to the sheer amount of talent the Royals already have on the big league roster.