Bleacher Report’s Royals-Nationals trade idea is far too risky for KC to consider

Hey, there is nothing wrong with passing the offseason with some Field of Dreams rewatches and firing up the Baseball Trade Values machine, right?

The website is a popular landing spot to see how wild a trade proposal is, with its “surplus value” model determining how balanced a trade is. For reference, the system deemed the Cincinnati Reds slightly overpaying for Kansas City Royals starter Brady Singer last offseason, just for a baseline.

So take it with a grain of salt, but Bleacher Report used that system to find some trade packages for Washington Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams. The former San Diego Padres prospect is coming off a career year for the Nationals, posting his third consecutive season of three-plus bWAR.

But with that franchise in a constant state of rebuilding and Abrams’ arbitration clock starting, the trade speculation is swirling. It is swirling specifically with Kansas City in the picture, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan reporting the Royals “inquired about pitcher MacKenzie Gore and infielder CJ Abrams from the Washington Nationals” this offseason.

Thus, that was the inroad Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller needed to see what it would take for Kansas City to acquire the one-time All-Star infielder.

No, the trade did not see catcher Blake Mitchell heading to the NL club, or a combination of prospects and either pitchers Kris Bubic or Noah Cameron getting the job done. Miller instead sent 2024 first-rounder Jac Caglianone and pitching prospect Hunter Owen back to Washington for Abrams’ services.

Trading away Jac Caglianone in a deal for CJ Abrams would be far too risky for the Royals

Yes, that Caglianone. The former top prospect, the only player pushing up Kansas City’s outfield ceiling for the foreseeable future, one half of the Royals’ Italian duo.

"Personally, it is a preposterous proposition that Kansas City would decline in a heartbeat, banking on Cags becoming a star over the course of his next six years of team control. In fact, if there is any headline this winter involving Caglianone, it is probably going to be news of a long-term extension, not a trade.

But if they are desperately trying to win in 2026—which they ought to be, with Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Sal Perez not getting any younger—and they are worried that Caglianone might need another year or two before he starts consistently producing in the big leagues, maybe they would be willing to give Washington a long-term building block at first base."

Kerry Miller, Bleacher Report

Well, Miller said it himself. The idea is preposterous and, at best, has Kansas City selling low on one of the game’s highest-ceiling bats. Caglianone tore up minor-league competition in his first professional season, making his MLB debut less than one year after the Royals drafted him sixth overall.

The initial results were not good for Caglianone, but heading into his age-23 season, the ceiling remains high, and his unteachable traits suggest he is primed for a rebound in 2026.

The proposed move also likely sends Abrams to a new position at second base, and Royals fans know all too well how poorly a newly acquired player can perform in a new spot. Abrams has the athleticism to play shortstop, but his everyday metrics paint the picture of a player not best suited for that role.

While a move to second base could get the best out of Abrams from a value perspective, Kansas City tried to play those games with several players in 2025, with success few and far between. Moving India off his natural second base to begin the season was the banner move against this school of thought.

Royals fans should not put much, if any, stock in trading for Abrams or trading away Caglianone. While Abrams is under team control for three more years, that will only drive his price higher, and that is one Kansas City’s farm system is not in a position to pay.

The Royals likely did their due diligence in checking in on Washington’s two high-profile trade candidates, but there is no reported movement, and the fit on paper is feeble at best.