3 truths about 2024 KC Royals that hint team will take a step back in 2025

The Kansas City Royals were the feel-good story of 2024, bursting back into contention after years in the AL Central cellar. Still, the notion of engraving their name on the Commissioner's Trophy should be tempered. There are some ominous signs that the Royals' resurgence could be short-lived.

Kansas City raised expectations in 2024, but the harsh reality is they're still a work in progress — one that could take a big tumble next season. Here are three truths about the Royals that hint the team could take a step back in 2025.

No. 1: The unlikely superstardom of Bobby Witt Jr.

Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is the face of the Royals' revival, but expecting him to reach the rarefied air of 10+ Wins Above Replacement (WAR) seasons is likely a pipe dream. Of the top 10 shortstops in MLB history by career WAR, only five have ever achieved that lofty milestone in a single campaign — and that's over nearly 12 decades of the game.

So while Witt is a transcendent talent, FanGraphs' projection of 7.0 WAR for him in 2025 is a more realistic target. The odds are stacked against the 24-year-old becoming an annual 10-WAR superstar.

No. 2: The KC Royals' offensive mirage

The Royals' offensive production in 2024 was something of a mirage. Their team OPS of .709 ranked just 14th in MLB, and shockingly, it was only better than the offenses of the Guardians and Tigers among playoff teams.

OPS, which combines on-base and slugging percentages, is one of the most telling metrics for evaluating a lineup's potency. If Witt takes a step back and the Royals fail to add legitimate pop to their order, their run-scoring ability could crater. They ranked 13th in the league in runs scored last season — a number that's almost certain to drop if no one is consistently reaching base or driving the ball.

No. 3: Bullpen woes are sinking the ship

The Royals' bullpen could be the Achilles' heel that sinks their postseason aspirations. Their relievers ranking 20th in MLB with a combined 4.13 ERA in 2024, which was in stark contrast to the starting rotation's superb 3.55 ERA, good for second overall.

But with veterans Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo a year older, and no clear-cut reinforcements on the horizon, the back end of the KC bullpen could be a disaster area in 2025. If they can't count on reliable work from their relief corps, it could negate the strong outings from the starting staff and cost them dearly in close games.

The Royals' turnaround was one of the best stories in baseball last season, but the underlying numbers suggest it was more fool's gold than sustainable success. Witt's inevitable regression, the offense's structural limitations, and the bullpen's continuing struggles are a recipe for a major step back in 2025.