3 Steamer projections for 2026 that should excite Royals fans, 1 that shouldn't

As the Kansas City Royals prepare for the February 11 opening of spring training, the rampant speculation about potential free agent signings and trades that's swirled around them all winter will soon give way to predictions of how the team and its individual players will fare in 2026.

Helping lead the parade of prognostications will, as always, be the Steamer projections, a prominent system whose work for the Royals' coming campaign is up now at FanGraphs.

Those projections include some compelling looks at dozens of players who may log time with the club this season. Some should excite Royals fans — and some should not. Let's check out a few.

3 Steamer projections for 2026 that should excite Royals fans

Royals outfielder Jac Caglianone

Projection: .255/.319/.450, 17 HR, 56 RBI, 109 wRC+

No, these projected numbers don't measure up to the countless predictions of superstardom that rained down on Caglianone as soon as the Royals grabbed him in the opening round of the 2024 amateur draft. "Can't miss" was the consensus, with only time, and probably not much of it, standing between him and the majors.

Caglianone wasted no time reaching the big leagues. Propelled by an astonishing start to the 2025 minor league season — after homering nine times, driving in 43 runs, and slashing .322/.394/.553 in 38 Double-A games, he collected six more homers, 13 more RBI, and slashed .326/.380/.767 in a dozen games for Triple-A Omaha. The Royals had seen all they needed to see, and called him up to Kansas City June 3.

And there, unfortunately, ended the best of Caglianone's 2025 campaign. He finished his 62-game rookie season with a shockingly poor .157/.237/.295 line, only seven home runs, and just 18 RBI. So concerning was his performance that the Royals may well platoon him this year.

But despite its almost pedestrian-looking numbers, Steamer's Caglianone projection is actually encouraging. While Steamer foresees him playing only 100 games, the 17 homers and 56 RBI for which he's projected are far better than his 2025 stats. So, too, is the .255/.319/.450 line Steamer has in mind.

Caglianone is clearly a work in progress. But Steamer's projections should please Royals fans hoping he takes a few steps forward in 2026.

Royals All-Star captain Salvador Perez

Projection: .254/.302/.445, 25 HR, 83 RBI, 101 wRC+

Perez's career accolades include nine All-Star selections, five Gold Gloves for his work behind the plate, and a franchise-high five Silver Sluggers.

But because 2026 will be his 15th major league season and 19th in pro ball, more awards adorn his mantle than will be added to it. The physical grind of playing professionally for over half his life, and catching as much as he has, will take its toll sooner rather than later.

And that's why Steamer's Perez projections should make KC fans happy. The numbers — especially 25 home runs and 83 RBI — suggest he's not in rapid decline and has plenty left in the tank. His projected .254 average exceeds by almost 20 points the .236 he hit last season, and playing 135 games won't be bad at all for his age-36 season.

And Steamer's outlook for Perez adds to the reasons Royals fans can look forward to his 2026 season.

Royals starting pitcher Cole Ragans

Projection: 12-9, 3.25 ERA, 29 starts, 172 IP, 201 strikeouts

For the hurler so many say is Kansas City's ace, Ragans' Steamer projections aren't surprising. He's predicted to lead the staff in wins, ERA, innings pitched, and strikeouts, and to tie Michael Wacha for the team lead in starts. Steamer also expects him to be worth 4.2 fWAR, and to limit opponents to a .216 average and 1.17 WHIP.

So why should numbers consistent with his "ace" status excite Kansas City fans? It's simple: Steamer expects the bounce-back season so many want so badly from Ragans — after all, his injury-plagued 3-3, 4.67 2025 campaign was disappointing and played a role in his club's failure to reach the playoffs. The Ragans' rebound Steamer foresees has to be welcome news to Royals fans.

3 Steamer projections for 2026 that should excite Royals fans

Royals utility man Tyler Tolbert

Projection: .226/.281/.321, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 26 wRC+

Tolbert has much to be proud of. The fleet of foot, defensively versatile player made his major league debut last season, slashed .280/.321/.380 in 64 games, stole 21 bases, filled Kansas City's late-inning pinch running specialist role, and did everything but pitch and play first base.

Unfortunately, Steamer doesn't project such numbers for Tolbert's sophomore campaign. Instead, it has him slashing only .226/.281/.321 and stealing only eight times across 27 games. Fans have enjoyed good things from Tolbert; now, they — and he — may be disappointed.