3 regression candidates KC Royals should stay away from in free agency

1B/OF Mark Canha

There are few better examples of a veteran-turned-journeyman than Mark Canha. The corner player has suited up for four different clubs in the past two seasons, providing each team with a respectable level of production. Whether at first base or in the outfield, Canha has carved out a solid MLB career for himself. However, the Royals should pay attention to his trends and avoid signing him this offseason.

The Royals will need to add at least one dependable outfielder this winter. The club cannot expect to run back their Opening Day 2024 trio and achieve significantly better results. While the small-market Royals realistically cannot be expected to compete in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, all other primary outfielders should be on the table. Canha would rank low on the list, serving as a consolation prize rather than a star acquisition. However, even that designation should lead Kansas City to avoid him this offseason.

The former Oakland Athletics star has steadily declined since 2021 in nearly every aspect of his game. His defense remains a net negative regardless of where he plays, and his power numbers at the plate have decreased each year, with his wRC+ only marginally above league average. He performed notably better with the San Francisco Giants later in the season, and that 32-game stretch should earn him a major-league contract. However, all signs indicate that the then-36-year-old Canha is on track to decline to a replacement-level player in 2025.

LHP Martín Pérez

The Royals will likely take some chances on veteran starters during free agency. The rotation's strongest members are returning in 2025, and arguably the Royals' most MLB-ready prospects are also starters. However, Picollo's track record indicates that he won't gamble when it comes to starting pitching. Left-handed starter Martín Pérez falls within the range of pitchers Kansas City should consider, but the veteran may not be the best fit for the team.

Pérez is two seasons removed from his career-best 2022, in which he went 12-8 with a 2.89 ERA. The lefty hasn’t been terrible since, but he’s nowhere near that level of success. He served as a solid bottom-of-the-rotation starter with the Rangers during their World Series run, but his 2024 season is more indicative of what fans should expect from him. His 4.53 ERA was marginally better than his 4.90 FIP, and he accrued only 0.5 fWAR across 26 starts.

There are several factors that make Pérez an unappealing option as a free agent, including how his pitching arsenal aligns with Kansas City's philosophy and his poor SIERA track record. Overall, Pérez could be a decent addition to a club looking to bounce back in 2025. However, he doesn’t fit with a contender right now, especially in Kansas City.