3 regression candidates KC Royals should stay away from in free agency

Wouldn't it be nice to see the Kansas City Royals hoist a World Series trophy in 2025?

The Royals gave it their best effort in 2024, ending the season in the ALDS against the eventual AL champion New York Yankees. With a 30-win improvement from 2023, a returning core of players, and a steadily improving farm system, there are plenty of reasons to feel optimistic about Kansas City's ball club.

The Royals' front office, led by general manager J.J. Picollo, should be proud of their turnaround. However, that pride cannot lead to complacency ahead of this winter. All the gains the Royals made can disappear as quickly as they appeared if the offseason personnel moves do not pan out. With Kansas City's somewhat limited resources for free agency, there are certain players they need to avoid due to potential regression.

RHP Kirby Yates

If Royals fans reflect on the 2024 trade deadline, there would have been a lot to like about reliever Yates. The righty posted an impressive 0.95 ERA through the end of June, accruing 11 saves in 28 appearances. He would have been an excellent acquisition for the Royals, or any contending team, at the deadline. However, most pitchers experience changes from one season to the next, and Yates will be hard-pressed to replicate his 2024 success.

The righty from Hawaii saved a staggering 33 games for the middling Texas Rangers, the most since his 41-save campaign in 2019. Yates' performance was a stark contrast to his struggles since that season — he missed the 2021 season and accumulated -0.4 fWAR from 2020 to 2023. However, his 1.17 ERA and 12.41 K/9 in 2024 are undeniable. The 37-year-old emerged as one of the game's best relievers, thanks to his elite mix of four-seam fastballs and splitters.

Yates will be 38 years old come Opening Day 2025, and Kansas City should learn its lesson from aging relievers who formerly played for the Texas Rangers. He will likely be seeking a multi-year deal, which could be his last chance to secure such a contract. The Royals have little room for error in free agency this year, and taking a gamble on Yates seems like a poor use of resources.