3 reasons Royals' Bobby Witt Jr. may once again come up short in AL MVP race

Another season is almost in the books, and Bobby Witt Jr. has posted yet another stellar campaign. Not exactly breaking news, but it doesn't make his performance any less impressive. Despite playing on a team still actively competing for the worst record in baseball, Witt Jr. is among the league leaders in fWAR, which will surely earn him some serious consideration when it comes to the AL MVP race.

However, like in the previous couple of seasons, his dominant play likely won’t be enough to earn him the top honor in the American League.  

Playing in the shadow of Aaron Judge’s prime has prevented Witt Jr. from having his turn in the limelight over the last several years. Sure, everyone knows that Witt Jr. is well on his way to eventually be considered one of the best shortstops to ever play the game, but without the MVP trophy on his shelf at home, his list of achievements will look just a little bit shorter. And just like in previous seasons, not winning MVP this year is not all of his fault. There are a couple of reasons why he’ll come up short yet again.   

The competitive odds are stacked up against the Royals superstar 

If you would have said back in April that Judge would miss the majority of the 2026 season, you would probably figure that Witt Jr. would have his best chance in his career to finally secure his first AL MVP. And normally, you would likely be correct.

But this season, Houston's Yordan Alvarez saw his opportunity to earn his first MVP award and has taken full advantage of Judge’s absence. As of August 24, Alvarez is sporting an eye-popping 1.050 OPS and is currently one of just eight batters in the entire league hitting over the .300 mark.   

As ESPN noted, the elite offensive performance from Alvarez has given him the best odds to take home the AL MVP award, with power-hungry Rays All-Star Junior Caminero trailing him by a significant margin. Not to be outdone, Witt Jr. would presumably help round out the top three, though he may just have too much ground to cover to surpass Alvarez.

And since September has historically been one of the weakest months for Royals’ franchise player, there might not be a realistic chance for him to make an inspired run at the award.       

Bobby Witt Jr. has had better years for the Royals in the past 

As already mentioned, Witt Jr. has had a spectacular 2026 season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. He now sits atop the the leaderboard in Outs Above Average (OAA) with 24, even outperforming current NL MVP-frontrunner Pete-Crow Armstrong.

Witt Jr. will likely take home his third Gold Glove award at the end of the season and could even snag his third Silver Slugger award as well. However, we have seen better offensive performances out of Witt Jr. in previous seasons. That’s not to say he hasn’t been great, just not the best of the best.

Witt. Jr. is currently top 20 in the league in batting average and stolen bases, but has fallen behind on nearly every other offensive statistic. Let’s be clear, his .822 OPS in 2026 is nothing to scoff at. In fact, it’s not too far off of his career .841 OPS. Overall it’s been a very good season for the Royals’ star shortstop. But it just doesn’t scream MVP-good, especially when compared to his 2024 season that solidified his spot as one of the league's best players.

History loves a good winner, and the Royals just haven’t won enough 

Whether you think it’s fair or not, MVP voters are often swayed by how a players’ team performs in the standings. An 8+ WAR season is a mighty feat that puts any player in a special class. But a 6+ WAR season on a title-contending team could influence a voter’s decision just enough to sway the MVP race. But as we’ve seen with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani during their MVP runs on the Los Angeles Angels, it is certainly possible for a game-changing player to make their mark while playing on sub-par teams. 

In the case of Witt Jr. and the 2026 Kansas City Royals, there is just not enough of a spark to light a fire and catch the MVP voters’ attention. Would things be different if the Royals were 20 games over .500 and competing for the best record in baseball? Maybe.

In his 2014 MVP season, Trout had his “worst” performance during his prime years but helped carry the Angels to 98 wins. The following year, Trout upped his game and posted a 9.3 fWAR season, yet he lost the MVP race to Toronto Blue Jays’ third baseman Josh Donaldson. The biggest difference? The Angels had a down year while the Blue Jays won the AL East. 

Witt Jr. has been an amazing player throughout the first five years of his career. But since missing out on winning Rookie of the Year in 2022, he has continuously dealt with an influx of MVP talent in the American League and a Royals team that haven't lived up to his level of play.

Witt Jr. will ultimately come up short of winning the AL MVP again this year, but at just 26 years old, we may not have even seen his prime yet. 

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