3 cold, hard truths about the struggling 2025 KC Royals

The Kansas City Royals are not the same team they were a year ago. Despite salvaging a series split with a 3-2 victory in Seattle Thursday night and winning again on Friday, the Royals are 42-47, saved from the American League Central basement only because Chicago has made that dark place its exclusive domain since the third game of the 2024 season. At this precise point last year, the Royals stood 48-40 and squarely in the mix for the Wild Card berth they eventually clinched.

Why Kansas City has almost completely flipped its record isn't hard to pinpoint. Lacking much power and too often hapless with runners in scoring position, the 2025 Royals are one of the worst offensive teams in the majors, and nothing guarantees them help before the July 31 trade deadline arrives. Carlos Estévez is one of the game's best closers, but the bullpen has weak spots and the typically fine rotation shows signs of developing its own flaws and fissures.

The handwriting is on the Kauffman Stadium walls — after finding their way back to postseason play last year, these Royals look less and less like a team on its way to a second-straight playoff appearance. The realities of it all are harsh, with cold, hard, disheartening truths surrounding the club many believed would end this season with an AL Central title. Here are three of those grim facts.

The KC Royals may miss the 2025 major league playoffs

The Wild Card berth they landed last season ended Kansas City's painful nine-year absence from postseason play. Now, the Royals seem well on the way to packing their bags for home, instead of October baseball, when the regular season ends September 28 with a road game against the A's.

A Central Division championship, while mathematically possible, is all but a pipe dream. Through Friday, the Royals are a daunting 13 games behind first-place Detroit, so only a red-hot second half combined with mediocre performances by the Tigers, Guardians, and Twins will give KC any chance for its first division title since 2015 and second in the last 40 years.

And snatching another Wild Card won't be easy. The 4.5 game margin by which the Royals trailed Seattle through Thursday for the AL's third Wild Card isn't insurmountable, but could become so considering that of all the teams left on the club's July schedule — Arizona, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta — only the Pirates appear undoubtedly out of Wild Card contention. That means a July as bad as their 8-18 June, certainly a possibility given their weak bats and the upcoming competition, could destroy whatever realistic hopes for postseason play the Royals still have.

Add to that foreboding mix an August slate packed with games against Detroit, Toronto, Minnesota, Boston, and Texas, all of whom are within striking distance of playoff spots, and the possibility that the Royals will watch postseason games from home only increases.

Jac Caglianone isn't helping the KC Royals

Caglianone didn't play against Seattle Thursday, presumably because manager Matt Quatraro wisely, and perhaps even mercifully, gave him the night off his nine-game, 1-for-30 slump warranted. Called to the majors June 1 after spending the better part of two months providing all but conclusive proof that he had nothing left to learn from minor league pitching, Caglianone hadn't managed a hit since June 27, and had gone five games without one before that. The two homers he clubbed against Texas June 19 were his first and latest, and the last of his four RBI also came that afternoon.

Through Friday, he's slashing .157/.204/.255. Per FanGraphs, his wRC+ is 22. Yes, 22.

Now, and unlike a week ago when he still looked full of confidence, Caglianone appears unable to lay off tempting but bad pitches, and frustrated by a steady diet of the pitches low and in. Adding to his struggles are the balls he consistently beats into the ground and others he consistently hits directly at defenders.

Sadly, the corner he'll eventually turn seems far away. Caglianone will break out of this slump sooner or later, but at this low moment he's simply not contributing to an already desperate offense.

The Royals may soon have to dilute a major asset

That pitching is primarily responsible for keeping Kansas City within sight of the playoffs goes almost without saying. The Royals left Seattle with the AL's second-best staff ERA (3.47), the bullpen's 3.52 ERA ranked third in the AL, and Estévez's 24 saves had him tied for the big league lead with San Diego's Robert Suarez and Houston's Josh Hader.

But circumstances may force general manager J.J. Picollo to dilute that strength. Seth Lugo probably won't be a Royal when the trade deadline smoke clears — last season's AL Cy Young award runner-up is a good bet to elect free agency this winter by declining his 2026 player option, meaning Picollo should, unless the Royals become stronger contenders in late July than they are now, trade him to guarantee a return. And even if Picollo makes the Royals deadline sellers, Lugo may be his best bait to attract suitors capable of delivering the big bat KC needs.

And despite the sterling first season he's enjoying with Kansas City, Estévez could be on the move. Good closers are in high demand at the trade deadline, and those 24 saves and his 2.19 ERA through Thursday could have opposing teams offering Picollo too much to turn down ... especially if the Royals don't improve soon and need to begin thinking about next year and beyond.