3 big names the KC Royals need to avoid at all cost this offseason

After forcing open their latest contention window, the Kansas City Royals have a lot of work to do to field a playoff-caliber roster for a second consecutive season. The club has already brought Michael Wacha back into the fold to round out their starting rotation, but there's still plenty of work to be done.

With Wacha, Salvador Perez, Seth Lugo and Hunter Renfroe taking up the vast majority of the Royals' payroll, the team may not have a ton of flexibility to spend this winter, but they're going to have to find the funds somehow if they are to prove they're here to stay.

MLBTR's annual free agent prediction piece has the Royals tabbed as ideal landing spots for a number of big names such as Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez, Jurickson Profar, Gleyber Torres, Clay Holmes, and Michael Conforto.

Not all of these names are ones that Royals should bring aboard. Some of them come with a fair bit of risk and for a team like the Royals who can't afford to have a hideous albatross contract on their books, they're going to have to proceed with caution. Let's dive in and check out a few big name players they shouldn't bother chasing after this offseason.

3 big names the Royals should avoid this winter

Yusei Kikuchi

While the Royals haven't been tied to Kikuchi (yet...), it's worth mentioning that he's an obvious regression candidate. The left-hander was traded from the Toronto Blue Jays to the Houston Astros at the 2024 deadline and saw his numbers improve across the board, but there's no guarantee the Royals' front office has the same "magic formula" that the Astros' once did.

Before joining the Astros and putting together a strong 10-start stretch, Kikuchi had only ever been an above-average pitcher at the big league level one time, when he finished the 2023 season with a 3.86 ERA and 111 ERA+.

Otherwise, he's been statistically below-average in every single other season of his six-year career. Teams are going to fall victim to recency bias and expect to sign the second-half version of him this offseason, but there's absolutely no guarantee he can keep this up in 2025 and beyond.

Jurickson Profar

As you'll come to find, this list is dominated by players who come with their fair share of regression risk, and Profar is no different. The former top prospect took a long time to capitalize on all of his potential, but he broke through in 2024 with an All-Star Game appearance 11 years after first debuting in the league.

Profar, a 31-year-old switch hitter, batted .280 while hitting 24 home runs, driving in 85 runs, and scoring 94 of his own. His 134 OPS+ put him 34% above league-average at the dish.

This offseason, there will be multiple teams lining up to make him their starting left fielder on a multi-year deal. However, the Royals shouldn't be one of them unless they can somehow secure him on a one-year contract with an option or two on the back end.

The reason for that is simple — Profar has never performed quite like he did this year. He's struggled mightily with inconsistent performances and a ton of injuries across his career. Finally breaking through and turning into a star after over a decade of underperformance doesn't scream "long-term contract" with a team like the Royals.

Anthony Santander

That brings us to Santander, the player who is likely to receive the largest contract out of this bunch. The switch-hitter is wrapping up a promising eight-year run with the Baltimore Orioles where he went from Rule 5 selection to 40-homer bat.

Santander's surface-level numbers look great across the board. He hits the ball in the gap a lot, and he hit 44 home runs in 2024 while driving in 102 runs and posting a 134 OPS+. What's not to like?

The issue with Santander is the fact that he's going to command a large contract and he hasn't really done much outside of slugging loud home runs and capitalizing on hitting behind the Orioles' endless supply of strong, young bats. A look at his Baseball Savant page will show you that he did a decent job of hitting the ball hard in 2024 but ... not much else.

The fact of the matter is that Santander doesn't draw any walks, he's only ever posted an OPS north of .800 one time in his career and he can't play defense to save his life. A player who hits the ball over the fence as much as him feels like an obvious candidate to record an OPS above .800 every year, but the only other time he's done it outside of 2024 is in a 37-game stretch in 2020.

Similarly to Kikuchi and Profar, there are going to be teams who see "44 home runs, 102 RBI" on Santander's stat line and immediately offer him a multi-year contract. He simply doesn't get on base enough or do much outside of hitting home runs. He was also extended a qualifying offer from the Orioles, so even if the Royals did sign him, they'd have to pay a hefty price on top of his contract. Kansas City would be much better off spending their money elsewhere.