KC Royals: Predicting the 2022 Opening Day lineup

Opening Day, which only a month ago seemed like something that might not occur this year, is now just days away. The KC Royals host Cleveland Thursday afternoon in the season’s first game for both clubs, and Cleveland’s first regular season contest as the Guardians.

The Royals are coming off their first full season without at least 100 losses since 2017 and retooled in the offseason. Gone are Mike Minor, Wade Davis, Greg Holland, Kyle Zimmer, Jakob Junis, Ervin Santana, Scott Blewett, and Hanser Alberto; new to the club are recently-acquired Amir Garrett and a host of other relievers, some of whom the club reassigned to minor league camp Saturday (Twitter link).

And reunited with the organization he broke in with is starting pitcher and probable future Hall of Famer Zack Greinke, who’s rejoined the team and become, in short order, its present ace.

Appropriately, Greinke will start against the Guardians Thursday. What lineup manager Mike Matheny chooses to support Greinke remains undisclosed, but here’s what looks likely.

Leading off and playing right field for the KC Royals: Whit Merrifield.

His defensive position is changing but Kansas City’s leadoff hitter is no stranger to the top of the order.

Whit Merrifield will open the season in right field and hit first.

Merrifield plays anywhere Matheny asks and has appeared in right field 135 times during his 789-game, six-season big league career. He’s also been the Royals’ primary leadoff man since retired skipper Ned Yost began deploying him there regularly in 2017.

Merrifield, whose move to right field had been long anticipated and finally became official when Matheny’s plan to return Adalberto Mondesi to shortstop triggered the domino effect that made the move practical, is hitting .290 as a leadoff man, a number almost matching his career .291 average. And his ability to steal bases—he’s led the majors in steals once and the American League two other times—increases the leadoff threat he presents.

Batting second and playing third base for the KC Royals: Bobby Witt Jr.

One of the most eagerly anticipated days in Kansas City baseball history is right around the corner.

Yes, what Royals fans have so looked forward to since the 2019 amateur draft, when the club made him the second overall selection, is finally about to happen.

Bobby Witt Jr., who MLB Pipeline says is the best overall prospect in the game, will undoubtedly make his major league debut at third base Thursday. And he’ll probably bat second in Matheny’s lineup.

Driven by his five-tool skill set and the position he’ll play, the comparisons to Hall of Famer George Brett have been and are inevitable. If anyone can handle the pressure, though, it’s Witt, who so far remains undaunted by anything he’s faced in his short professional career. Although he has only two seasons and a 2020 summer spent at the club’s Alternate Training Site under his belt, he’s slashing .407/.448/.741 (1.189 OPS) this spring and clubbed 33 homers, drove in 97 runs, and hit .290 in the minors last season.

Because Witt can handle the bat so well and is always a threat to swipe bases (29 steals last year), he’s a good choice to hit behind Merrifield and ahead of Salvador Perez.

Batting third and catching for the KC Royals: All-Star Salvador Perez.

Duplicating the monster season he had last year is a lot to ask, but if he comes anywhere close to what he did in 2021, Salvador Perez will once again be a Kansas City highlight.

Perez exploded last year. His 48 homers broke Johnny Bench’s all-time record for primary catchers, tied the Royals’ club record and tied him for the major league lead. He led the big leagues with 121 RBIs, made his seventh American League All-Star team and won a team record fourth Silver Slugger award.

What better Royal is there to hit in the critical third spot for Kansas City?

Perez will be in the first year of the historic multi-year contract he signed last spring, one that may, when all is said and done, mitigate the grumblings generated by the underperformances of Danny Duffy and Alex Gordon after they received huge deals. But Perez, who turns 32 next month and is entering his 11th big league season, will have to perform well to make that happen.

Look for him to do just that. Perez seems to improve every year and, while surpassing last year’s numbers will be a formidable and improbable task, just equaling his career 162-game average—28 homers, 93 RBIs and .270 batting average—will more than justify batting him third.

Batting fourth and playing left field for the KC Royals: Andrew Benintendi.

Some skeptics may not believe in Andrew Benintendi as Kansas City’s cleanup hitter and probably prefer Salvador Perez in that spot. They might be right.

But don’t sell Benintendi short.

Yes, he started slowly in 2021 after joining the Royals in an offseason three-way deal with the Red Sox and Mets—he hit only one home run in April and ended the month hitting .225. But when May turned to June, his average had jumped to .288 and he’d added three homers.

Benintendi then posted uninspiring numbers from June through August, batting just .228 with eight homers and 26 RBIs. The performance was disappointing, yet attributable at least in part to the rib fracture that forced him out of action for three weeks.

The Benintendi the Royals sought and traded for, and showed itself in May, fortunately reappeared again down the stretch. On the way to wrapping up his first Gold Glove, Benintendi slashed .342/.398/.570 with five homers and 29 RBIs in his last 31 games.

That Benintendi and the Royals are headed for arbitration shouldn’t affect the six-year veteran’s performance. But do his final 2021 stats—17 home runs, 73 RBIs and a .274/.347/.437 line, warrant batting him fourth? Time will tell, but don’t bet against it. After all, he hit .291 and five homers, and drove in 33 runs, in 49 games from that spot last year.

Batting fifth and playing first base for the KC Royals: Carlos Santana.

Less than a week away from opening Day, Kansas City first baseman Carlos Santana is in an interesting (some will say precarious) position. This is his contract year, the season his current two-year deal expires, and Nick Pratto’s recent demotion to Triple-A Omaha doesn’t change the fact that the club’s No. 3 MLB Pipeline prospect is so close to the majors.

What all that means, of course, is Santana’s days with the club are numbered. If the Royals aren’t shopping him now, they will be by July and he’s almost certain to be plying his trade elsewhere after the trade deadline passes.

Until he leaves, however, Santana is a good choice to bat fifth for the Royals. The hip injury that dogged him throughout last season’s second half clearly hurt his numbers (his .214 average was, except for the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, the worst of his 12-year career, and his .319 OBP was without exception his lowest), but Santana still managed to club 19 homers and drive in 69 runs.

And he’s shown no signs of that hip injury this spring. Through Friday (the Royals didn’t play Saturday), and despite not homering yet, Santana is 10-for-26 with six RBIs and a .393 OBP in nine games.

Batting seventh and playing shortstop for the KC Royals: Adalberto Mondesi.

Adalberto Mondesi can almost everything. He hit 14 home runs and a respectable .276 in just 75 games in 2018. He led the majors in stolen bases in 2020 with 24. His defense is so spectacular that he’s an excellent bet to win at least one Gold Glove before he retires.

But what this still-young player—he won’t be 27 until July—can’t seem to do consistently is stay healthy. His short career’s injury history is already almost legendary; only once has Mondesi played a full season, and that was the short 2020 campaign.

So great are his talent and potential, however, that the Royals must maintain hope he can shake the injury bug and help lead them back to relevancy. His sizzling 2020 September (.356/.408/.667 with six homers and 20 RBIs in 24 games) still serves as a reminder of how well he can play when healthy.

Mondesi, apparently recovered from the injuries that limited him to 35 games last season, is back at shortstop, where Kansas City hopes he picks up where he left off in 2020. And seventh seems a good place for Mondesi to hit, at least while he eases back into playing regularly. The pressure isn’t acute there, so he can relax and work his bat into the groove the Royals know it has.

Batting eighth and playing center field for the KC Royals: Michael A. Taylor.

If there’s anything certain about the Royals’ relationship with Michael A. Taylor, it’s that they don’t pay him primarily for his hitting.

Instead, the two-year contract the club signed him to before last season even ended is a product far more of his glove than his bat.

Taylor, remember, was coming off a .196 season and sporting a career .237 average when he arrived in Kansas City from Washington for the 2021 campaign. He’d displayed occasional power and could steal bases before becoming a Royal, but his steady glove promised more than his offense.

Taylor didn’t disappoint in center field—he won his first Gold Glove and filled the void Lorenzo Cain created there when he returned to the Brewers after the 2017 season.

And he surprised a bit at the plate with the second most RBIs (54) and third best homer total (12) and average (.244) of his career.

Those numbers aren’t enough, however, to justify hitting Taylor higher in the lineup than eighth. But his speed so complements that of the two Royals he’ll bat between—Adalberto Mondesi and Nicky Lopez—that KC’s bottom third of the lineup will have the ability to cause trouble on the bases.

Batting ninth and playing second base for the KC Royals: Nicky Lopez.

Spring training didn’t end well for Nicky Lopez last year. Kansas City optioned him to Triple-A to work on the hitting that in 2020 turned anemic (.201) and remained so (.118) through the Cactus League schedule.

But a reprieve materialized in the unfortunate form of Adalberto Mondesi’s first injury of the year, an oblique strain that forced the Royals to recall Lopez almost immediately after they sent him out. Lopez replaced Mondesi at shortstop and turned the opportunity his teammate’s misfortune created into his own good fortune—Lopez became the first Royal shortstop to hit .300 and more than adequately filled the defensive hole Mondesi’s absence created.

Now headed back to second base as part of Kansas City’s decision to restore Mondesi to shortstop, Lopez is destined to hit ninth in the Royal lineup.

So why bat a .300 hitter at the bottom of the order?

Simple. It’s a good place for him, one of little pressure as he tries to prove .300 wasn’t a fluke and one that also gives him chances to get on base ahead of Merrifield, who can move him along and make Lopez’s speed on the bases (22 steals last season) even more of a factor.

And his .287 average and .355 OBP prove ninth was a comfortable place for Lopez in 2021.

The Royals should have a decent Opening Day lineup.