The KC Royals face tough trade, no-trade decision

The major league trade deadline is just a few hours hours more than a week away. By 3 p.m. Kansas City time (CDT) next Friday, all deals must be done, and KC Royals fans will know by then whether Whit Merrifield will still be theirs.

Contemplating a Merrifield trade has been an annual Kansas City ritual since at least 2018, the year after he established himself as a bona fide big league star by leading the majors in hits for the first of two straight seasons, leading both leagues in stolen bases, and slashing .304/.367/.438. That he’s arguably the most effectively versatile player in either league increases his value exponentially.

Although the Royals tend to keep trade overtures to themselves, there’s no doubt they’ve been approached about Merrifield. But under General Manager Dayton Moore and the two principal owners for whom he’s worked, the club hasn’t budged when it comes to Merrifield.

And now, a small bit of the glow may be off Merrifield. At .273 entering tonight’s game against Detroit, he probably won’t reach that .304 he hit in 2018, the next season’s .302, or perhaps even 2020’s .282.

But he’s played every game this season, his eight homers prove he still has pop, he’s driven in 51 runs, and he once again leads the majors in steals with 25, all of which taken together spawns speculation other clubs are, or should be, interested in Merrifield. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports via Twitter that the Mets and others are monitoring the Merrifield situation, and trade projections involving Merrifield are easy to find.

Only the top KC brass knows whether the club is willing to trade Merrifield or wants to keep him. But what might figure into a tough decision is easy to identify. Let’s take a look.

Does Whit Merrifield have any desire to be traded away from the KC Royals?

Whit Merrifield doesn’t control his fate. He has no “10 & 5” rights, which means he has no CBA-based power to veto trades. And there isn’t any reason to believe he has a personal contractual right to reject deals.

But what Merrifield wants may carry some weight with management. What if, hypothetically, Merrifield no longer likes being a Royal? The franchise values loyalty and happy players, so Merrifield with a case of baseball wanderlust is a viable trade candidate.

Merrifield hasn’t publicly expressed any discontent, so no hard evidence suggests he wants out. Could he be blamed, though, for some frustration with the current sorry state of the only team he’s ever played for?

Or about his position in the club’s financial pecking order? There’s a case to be made (and has been since 2020) that, despite the four-year deal he agreed to in late January 2019, he’s underpaid. Yes, the club probably restructured its financial arrangements with him in part to increase his compensation, but is he really worth only the $16.25 million minimum value of the deal? Should he be miffed by the more lucrative $25 million contract KC gave now-underperforming Hunter Dozier before this season even began?

The answers to those questions are “Yes” and “Maybe.”

Merrifield is, day in and day out, Kansas City’s best and most valuable player. He’s probably just fine with Salvador Perez recently signing the biggest contract in Royals’ history, a four-year deal worth at least $82 million, or around five times the minimum value of Merrifield’s contract. Perez, after all, is the franchise.

Merrifield can’t be blamed, however, if Dozier’s deal, worth almost $9 million more than his own, made him wonder. After all, he’s has been far better for the KC Royals than Dozier, although time may ultimately (but probably won’t) prove Dozier the better player.

But if Merrifield is unhappy, he’s hiding it well. Presume, then, that he’s content where he is and isn’t pushing a trade. That’s important if KC wants to keep him.

Should the KC Royals save Whit Merrifield for their next contention window?

For a refreshing, uplifting time this season, and a year or two ahead of schedule, Kansas City appeared ready to contend. The Royals rode an uncharacteristically good April to first place in the American League Central and, except for a few days, held that lofty position for almost a month. Their losing ways finally took over and the club now looks up at the rest of the division from last place.

Unfortunately, contending in 2022 is becoming increasingly unlikely. The Royals are weak across the board—the rotation is in shambles, the bullpen isn’t as good as it was earlier, the hitting is woefully unreliable, and hot prospects like Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch may not be big-league ready as soon as the club thought they would.

So it is that contending for even a Wild Card may not happen until 2023. If the Royals want Merrifield to help lead and mentor a team inexperienced in the ways of real races for the postseason, they certainly can’t trade him now. Instead, Kansas City must negotiate a new deal with him or pick up a 2023 option worth as much as $10.5 million, an interesting price to pay for a player’s age-35 season.

But keeping Merrifield comes with other costs—the risk that the KC Royals won’t be ready to seriously contend in 2023, and his skills will have so diminished by the end of that season that he’ll have far less value as a player and trade chip (the latter presuming a contract extension, and not an option pick-up, got him to 2023) than he does today. Those factors alone justify trading him now.