The KC Royals won’t be Cleveland’s doormat this season

Cleveland has dominated the KC Royals for several years. That’s about to change.

When new KC Royals first baseman Carlos Santana take his first crack at his old team this afternoon at Cleveland’s Progressive Field, he’ll see a far different club than the one he left to join Kansas City last December.

And his new teammates won’t be facing the same team that’s dominated them for the past five years: since winning the 2015 World Series, the Royals are 31-55 against Cleveland. But because the Indians and Royals aren’t now what they have been, that domination should end this season, and the beginning of that end may come today when the Royals start their first road series at 3:10 p.m. CDT.

Because the Indians finished just a game behind American League Central champion Minnesota and clinched a Wild Card in 2020, the personnel changes they’ve made might be surprising. But money issues haunt every club eventually; Cleveland is no exception, and finances became the excuse when last season concluded.

Clearly, what was, or wasn’t, in Cleveland’s coffers drove trading Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to the Mets in January. Via arbitration, Lindor stood to make much more than his $17.5 million 2020 salary and was headed for free agency after 2021. The Indians owed Carrasco $12 million this season and next; considering he pitched well in his 2020 comeback from leukemia, money had to be at play.

But that trade wasn’t the only damaging move tied to money. The club also saved itself the $10 million cost of picking up premier closer Brad Hand’s contract by cutting him loose.

And, while the Indians didn’t completely offset those losses with significant winter acquisitions, the Royals’ aggressive offseason narrowed the gap between the teams and means the Indians have one less division doormat.

So, what is this changed Cleveland club like?

Key losses will make Cleveland less of a threat to the KC Royals in 2021

To be accurate, the stripping of critical Cleveland components began before last season even ended. It was nearly mid-August when starters Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac found themselves on the restricted list after violating baseball’s COVID-19 protocols; although Plesac is still with the Indians, they traded Clevinger to San Diego shortly thereafter.

Perhaps the deal had something to do with Clevinger’s running afoul of pandemic controls; perhaps it didn’t. But money played at least a part—Clevinger left Cleveland with two years of arbitration eligibility left, was 38-18 for the Tribe from 2017-19, and was pitching well when traded. For Clevinger, there was more to be made in post-season arbitration than his $4.1 million 2020 pay and, as the Indians proved over the winter, money was becoming an issue in Cleveland.

Losing Carrasco and Hand will also hurt. Carrasco’s comeback from leukemia was successful—he was 3-4 with a 2.91 ERA in 2020 and won the players union’s Comeback Player of the Year award. He won 60 games for the Tribe from 2015-18 (including a majors-leading 18 in 2017). That kind of production isn’t easily replaced. And Hand, one of the game’s top closers, saved 50 games from 2019-20 and led the big leagues last year with 16.

Then there’s the loss of Carlos Santana to the Royals. Santana is one of the best in the game at finding ways to get on base, and hit 216 homers, drove in 710 runs, and posted a 121+ OPS in 12 Cleveland seasons.

The biggest loss of all, of course, is shortstop Francisco Lindor. He was the franchise, the players the fans most hated to see go. Cleveland won’t fully replace him any time soon.

(The Tribe also lost outfielders Delino DeShields and Tyler Naquin, and backup catcher Sandy Leon).

The Tribe added some talent, but still won’t be as good as it has been.

To help offset its losses at the plate, Cleveland looked to division rival Minnesota and signed Twins’ free agent outfielder Eddie Rosario to a one-year deal. He won’t replace Lindor but, realistically, who can?

Rosario played a key role in Minnesota’s recent four-season success (two AL Central championships, two second-place finishes, and three playoff berths). He averaged almost 20 homers and 65 RBIs, and hit .277 in six years with the Twins.

The Indians also “added” second baseman Cesar Hernandez by re-signing him in January. Last season was Hernandez’s first with the Tribe and he made it a good one, tying for the league lead in doubles (20) and hitting .283 with a .355 OBP.

Taking over at shortstop is Andres Gimenez, who came over from the Mets in the Lindor-Carrasco deal. He was serviceable for New York last year, hitting .263 with three homers and 12 RBIs in 49 games. But he isn’t Franco, and never will be.

What will Cleveland’s pitching look like this week against the KC Royals?

Without Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber is now the undisputed ace of the staff, a solid righthander who owned baseball last season with a Cy Young Award-winning 8-1, 1.63 ERA record. He led the majors in wins, strikeouts (122), SO9 (14.2), and FIP (2.07). And he was 15-8 in 2019 and 11-5 as a rookie in 2018.

Bieber lost his Opening Day start last week but, if the rotations and weather hold, will start against the Royals Thursday.

Plesac is Cleveland’s No. 2 starter. He clearly spent some time in Cleveland’s doghouse last year but went 4-2, 2.28 in eight games. He’s 12-9, 3.31 in three Cleveland seasons.

After Bieber and Plesac come youth and inexperience. Aaron Civale (25 with 23 big league appearances), Logan Allen (23 with 12), and Triston McKenzie (23 with eight) should round out the rotation. Allen, the only southpaw in the group, will probably face KC’s Danny Duffy this afternoon.

The bullpen is the center of uncertainty. There is no heir apparent to the departed Hand. Expect Cleveland manager Terry Francona to experiment early in the season before settling on regular relief assignments.