KC Royals: 3 “too early” midseason trade thoughts

Three KC Royals regulars could end up being attractive midsummer trade deadline pieces.

July marks the beginning of every baseball season’s maturation process. As the campaign’s fourth full month gets under way, many teams’ hopes for contention are long gone while other clubs’ wane; at the same time, pennant races start to ripen and general managers and scouts rush to find down-the-stretch help before the annual July 31 trade deadline arrives. Whether the KC Royals will be midseason buyers or sellers remains to be seen, but they may have at least a trio of top trade candidates.

Several things can turn an established everyday player into a July trade piece. Performance is the key—although there are exceptions (Brandon Maurer to the Royals in 2017, a notoriously poor deal) few players having bad years move at the deadline. Contending teams look for players who’ll make them better, not worse, while the also-rans hunt for good prospects.

Contract status is another factor. Contending teams typically don’t mind “renting” good players in the final season of their contracts; also tempting are those who present a year or more of team control, especially if they’re still arbitration-eligible or have time remaining on affordable contracts.

And some rosters just run out of room for decent players.

The pandemic drastically altered the game last season, shortening the campaign by over a third and pushing the traditional midseason deal deadline to the end of August. Because Major League Baseball obviously thinks this season will start on time and be played in full, the trade curtain will likely fall at the usual time. So, which KC Royals could be teams call General Manager Dayton Moore to talk about in July?

As the end of his five-year KC Royals contract nears, a veteran starter may finish 2021 elsewhere.

He is a Royal whose loves for the team and city he plays in are legend. Danny Duffy has never, ever kept secret his desire to play his entire career in Kansas City.

Time in Kauffman Stadium baseball residence may, however, be running short for Duffy. He’s preparing for the fifth, and final, year of the $65 million dollar deal he signed before the 2017 season; barring an extension, Duffy will hit the free agent market for the first time this coming winter. That alone makes him a trade deadline prospect.

But there’s more. This could be the season the KC Royals run out of patience with Duffy. Call it underachievement, underperformance, or disappointment: whatever the characterization, Duffy has yet to meet the expectations underlying the deal that recognized him, for a short time, as Kansas City’s ace. The club may want to move on from Duffy in July and get what they can for him.

The 32-year old 10-year veteran hasn’t repeated the 12-3, 3.51 ERA 2016 season that convinced the Royals he would be their No. 1 starter for a long time to come. He’s 28-32 since, although injuries and poor run support have played a part in that unremarkable (for a $65 million dollar man) record. The franchise hoped for more.

Duffy suffered two straight losing campaigns after signing his new contract, then went an encouraging 7-6 in 2019. He was 4-4 last season and displayed some glimpses of his 2016 form.

But Duffy has come to the crossroad. No matter how her performs, this season could be his last with the team he loves. A poor 2021 likely ends his Kansas City career—there are too many talented young hurlers needing a roster spot. A good first half increases his midsummer market value and, consequently, the likelihood of a trade. Only the money remaining on his $15.5 million 2021 salary could stand in the way, but the Royals might eat some of that cash if the return value is sufficient.

If Duffy isn’t pitching well by the time July rolls around, though, it won’t matter.

Could this be the year the KC Royals deal away the most versatile player they have?

No Kansas City trade discussion is ever complete until Whit Merrifield’s name comes up, and that won’t stop until he’s traded, leaves for free agency, or retires. Proponents of trading Merrifield rely, of course, on the theory that trading him now, before his value diminishes, will reap a wealth of promising young prospects.

The detailed arguments for not trading Merrifield are well-chronicled, including in a recent piece in this very space. Suffice it to say for present purposes that losing him would tear an ill-timed hole in the Royals, a team improved by Dayton Moore’s savvy offseason signings and seemingly on the verge of flirting with a .500 campaign.

Merrifield is, together with Salvador Perez, the glue that holds these Royals together. He’s not as quiet a leader as Alex Gordon was, but Gordon’s influence on Merrifield is unmistakable. Reliable and steady in work ethic and play, Merrifield is a leader who’ll do anything and play everywhere manager Mike Matheny asks, and do it all well.

He’s led the majors in hits two of the last three seasons and is effective in the leadoff spot; he turns 32 this month, but still has enough speed to steal bases. And he won’t be a free agent until after 2022, and then only if the KC Royals don’t pick up their option for 2023.

All those reasons support keeping Merrifield at the same time they support trading him. Even an average first-half will force his name to the trade talk forefront; the Royals won’t let him go if they’re contending, but if they’re floundering they might decide the time has come to collect on his value.

But just because the KC Royals can trade Merrifield doesn’t mean they should.

A lot can happen between now and July. But no matter what, three KC Royals are almost certain to be midseason trade targets.