Tough arbitration decisions face KC Royals, Moore

The KC Royals usually avoid arbitration. But with big offseason decisions to make, how will they approach the process this year?

Major League Baseball Trade Rumors published its annual arbitration salary projections for all 30 teams, including the KC Royals, just Thursday. Their predictions have already spawned droves of Internet reaction.

The projections came with a caveat of sorts. Because baseball arbitrators generally limit statistical performance arguments to the immediately preceding season, MLBTR predicted three separate outcomes: one based on the 60-game 2020 season, one extrapolating 60-game stats to the regular 162-games, and one applied to players not in their first arbitration season that first projected raises based on 162 games, then adjusted to 37 percent of that number.

Baseball’s lack of an agreement covering the shortened season’s effects on arbitration drove MLBTR’s alternative projections; the current Basic Agreement contemplates a 162-game schedule and, while the players and clubs may negotiate a resolution, they haven’t yet.

For the Royals, arbitration involves more than determining what salaries to offer. Because payroll money all comes from the same pot, the club must determine whether to offer extensions to several key arbitration-eligible players; how to budget for club extensions and club improvement; whether to save money by cutting arbitration-eligible players loose; and what to offer players they don’t extend.

What favors the Royals is veteran general manager Dayton Moore, a master of arbitration avoidance who almost always negotiates deals with his players. But the KC Royals’ impressive cast of players eligible for arbitration—Brad Keller, Adalberto Mondesi, Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier, Jakob Junis, Mike Montgomery, Maikel Franco, Kevin McCarthy, Franchy Cordero, Jesse Hahn and Glenn Sparkman—may make his job more difficult this time.

The decisions will be hard. Let’s see what they might be.

(We’re using only MLBTR projections based on the just-completed 60-game campaign and the extrapolation to the usual 162 contests. All references to 2020 player salaries are based on Baseball Prospectus’ invaluable Cot’s Baseball Contracts and are not prorated to 60 games).

For different reasons, four KC Royals shouldn’t be extension candidates.

The Royals have four players to whom they should tender 2021 contracts, but not extension offers.

Maikel Franco.  Franco’s base this season was $2.95 million. MLBTR predicts arbitration will bring him $4.5 million or $8 million. Why so much? It’s simple—the Royals acquired Franco to hit and field and he did both. He played every game, hit .278, led the club in RBIs with 38 and his eight homers tied for third. A handful of errors in 51 games at third base eliminated him from Gold Glove consideration but he was serviceable.

Extending Franco, though, isn’t the right move. He played well enough to deserve mention in the extension discussion, but he may get squeezed out of the KC picture sooner than he’d like. Adalberto Mondesi is set at shortstop, which means super shortstop prospect Bobby Witt Jr., who’s coming on strong and could find his way to Kauffman Stadium sometime next season, will need a place to play. He’s been working at third, so extending Franco now could turn out to be a mistake. Arbitrating with Franco could be worth the risk.

Franchy Cordero.  Cordero came to the Royals in the July trade that sent Tim Hill to San Diego. Despite a wrist injury that cost him several weeks on the Injured List, Cordero still managed to slash .286/.447/.733 in 38 games. He played solid defense and gave the club good reason to bring him back. His base was $571,100; MLBTR projects he’ll do well in arbitration ($900,000 or $1 million). Those numbers are probably a bit high; he isn’t an extension candidate yet, but the KC Royals should tender him.

Jesse Hahn.  Credit Hahn for playing a big role in the bullpen’s 2020 comeback. In only his second season as a reliever, he was 1-0 with a minuscule 0.52 ERA and three saves in 18 games, and averaged almost 10 strikeouts per nine innings. While MLBTR’s projections of $1.1 million and $1.7 million are fair, expect the club to offer a bit less. He’s not quite ready for an extension; even if he was, others are ahead of him. But the Royals need to keep him.

Jakob Junis.  If 2020 wasn’t a lost season for Jakob Junis, it was close. He missed time after a preseason positive COVID-19 test, was sidelined by back spasms in August and optioned to the alternate training site for a week in September. His numbers weren’t pretty—0-2, 6.39 ERA and a 1.618 WHIP—but arbitration can be quirky and MLBTR predicts a $1.5 million or $1.7 million salary (his 2020 base was $608,000). Both amounts are excessive and the club won’t offer either.

Junis won nine games three years in a row before 2020, but his losses increased from three to 12 to 14. He’s trending down, not up, so an extension shouldn’t be in the picture. The KC Royals won’t give up on him yet, but they don’t need to make him a millionaire.

Four KC Royals deserve extension consideration. But will the club offer extensions to any of them?

The winter of 2017 saw the KC Royals bracing for the inevitable post-season departures for free agency of Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar, and preparing for arbitration with Danny Duffy. Instead, they signed Duffy to a five-year, $65 million contract extension that also delayed his first venture into free agency.

The club now faces another, but more urgent, Duffy-like situation. Four of its stars are arbitration eligible; three will be free agents after the 2023 season, and one after next season. Whether arbitration-avoiding extensions are appropriate for them is the question.

Brad Keller.  Keller overcame COVID-19 and the memories of a bad 2019 season to reclaim his spot as the ace of Kansas City’s rotation in 2020. A positive COVID test robbed him of the first two weeks of the season, but he won his first three starts and finished 5-3 with a rotation-leading 2.47 ERA. He also led Royal starters in wins, WHIP, FIP, SO/W and pitching WAR. Keller put his forgettable 2019 7-14 campaign in the past and revived the good memories of his 2018 Royals Pitcher of the Year season.

Keller deserves an extension. He’s a key to the future and, according to MLBTR, should get $2.4 million or $4.3 million in arbitration. (His 2020 base was $613,000). But he needs to wait for the lucrative long-term extension that will eventually be his—the club’s immediate needs include a veteran starter and an established bat, and it will need money to get them. Keller’s under team control and the franchise can afford to delay his big day. But it should make him a fair offer along the lines of MLBTR’s projections.

Adalberto Mondesi.  For most of 2020, a raise, significant arbitration award, or contract extension were unrealistic for Mondesi. Although he seemed to steal a base or two every time he got on, getting on was something he seldom did. Then came September: after hitting .206 in July and .179 in August, Mondesi set baseball afire with a .356/.408/.667 slash (1.075 OPS) and swiped 16 bases to give him a major league-leading 24. He finished the season at .256 and played Gold Glove caliber defense.

Mondesi’s base salary was $604,500; MLBTR apparently thinks his September and glove work justifies an arbitration award of $2.1 or $3.8 million. Should the Royals, on the merits of his inarguable five-tool potential, some past good play, and sizzling September, avoid the risk of arbitration and buy out the first years of his free agency? He’ll be a free agent after the 2023 season.

No. Mondesi’s situation is the same as Keller’s—he isn’t going anywhere unless the KC Royals trade or release him and they’re not about to do either. An extension would come at a steep price and the club needs money for other things. Mondesi’s day will come soon; in the meantime, look for the Royals to give him a short-term deal well worth his while.

Hunter Dozier.  Dozier’s breakout 2019 season—a big league-leading 10 triples, 26 homers, 84 RBIs and .279 average—seemed sufficient to secure his claim to third base. But the club’s winter acquisition of Maikel Franco forced Dozier to the outfield; then, its dissatisfaction with the Ryans (O’Hearn and McBroom) triggered Dozier’s move to first. His 2020 play there brought rave reviews from manager Mike Matheny.

Dozier’s lackluster season at the plate (.228/.344/.392) can be blamed in part on his missing almost the first third of the season after testing positive for COVID-19. But his six homers in 44 games, which extrapolates to 22 over a full 162-game slate, and his stellar play at a new position likely underlie MLBTR’s arbitration projections of $1.9 and $2.9 million, significant bumps from his $610,500 2020 base.

Those may be numbers the Royals are willing to risk. Dozier has power but his bat remains inconsistent, so the club may not be quite ready to jump him up into even the $4-5 million per year range. And he’s less of an extension candidate than Keller or Mondesi.

Jorge Soler.  Jorge Soler finally became in 2019 the player the KC Royals wanted him to be when they traded Wade Davis to the Cubs in 2016 to get him. He played every game, smashed 48 home runs to lead the league and break the club’s single-season record, drove in 117 runs, slashed a respectable .265/.354/.569 and posted a 138 OPS+. His six homers and 24 RBIs this season extrapolates to respective regular season marks of about 30 and 90; MLBTR projects an arbitration award of $7.4 or $9.2 million. (His base was $7.3 million).

Soler’s would be an extension the Royals can justify. He’s eligible for free agency after the 2021 campaign, so they’ll need to extend him or risk losing his considerable, un-Royal-like power (unless, of course, they’re banking on Soler having a good first-half next season so he’ll be attractive at the trade deadline). Soler will turn 29 about the time spring training starts, so he should have a few productive seasons left.

But if the Royals aren’t interested in trading Soler, the right financial move might be to offer him a modest raise—if MLBTR’s projections are accurate, the risk might pay off.

The approach the KC Royals take to their 11 arbitration-eligible players depends on several factors. Financial considerations will drive their decisions.