KC Royals: Does remaining schedule help or hurt?

The KC Royals are 8-11 with 41 games left to play in 2020. Does their remaining schedule favor a run at the postseason?

When the game ends and the lights go out at Target Field Friday night, the KC Royals will be 9-11 or 8-12. Whether they beat, or are beaten by, Minnesota, one-third of Kansas City’s season will be in the books with 40 games remaining. What might that mean for a still rebuilding club playing in an unusual season where anything can, and probably will, happen?

First and foremost, of course, is the postseason question–can these Royals, an intriguing mix of veterans, middle-of-the-roaders, and rookies, make a serious run at October baseball? In a normal campaign not shortened by a pandemic, the answer would probably be “No.” But the unique set of circumstances affecting this season make it a “Maybe.”

Schedule specifics aside for the moment, 2020’s expanded playoff system gives this club a better chance than a normal season would afford. Under the new format, six more teams (three in each league) will qualify for the postseason this year–instead of the three division winners and two Wild Card clubs making it from both leagues, this season’s playoff field will consist of those clubs and the second-place teams in each division.

Heading into tonight’s game in Minnesota, the KC Royals were 8-11 after evenly splitting their last 10 games; they were in last place in the American League Central, four games behind the first place Twins, 2.5 games behind second place Detroit, and just three games behind in the Wild Card race. The simple fact they’re only three games out of a playoff spot with 41 left to play gives the club and its fans at least mathematical hope.

The bottom line, of course, is that the Royals have to win, and win frequently, to have a realistic shot to play past the scheduled Sept. 27 end to the regular season. Can they? That, as they say, depends…

The KC Royals play 14 more games against teams from the NL Central, none of whom have winning records.

This year’s COVID-19-forced modified schedule limits teams to playing their division opponents and those from the other league’s “corresponding” division, so the only teams outside their division the Royals play are NL Central clubs.

Kansas City played a four-game, home and home series with the Cubs and went 1-3 against the team that so far has lost only three games and leads its division; fortunately, KC won’t see 13-3 Chicago again this season. The Royals split two road games against the Reds, who were without injured former Royal Mike Moustakas, and face them next week at home in the final pair the teams will play this season.

That leaves three games against Pittsburgh in Kansas City, three games in Milwaukee (KC won’t see former Royal Lorenzo Cain, who opted out of playing this season), and six possible games against St. Louis. The six contests against the Brewers and Pirates presently size up as good chances for KC Royals wins–the Brewers are 7-10 after losing to the Cubs Thursday and the Pirates, despite beating Cincinnati Thursday, own baseball’s worst record at 4-13.

The greatest uncertainty lies, of course, with the Cardinals, players of only five games after a hard COVID-19 hit. Including the postponement of Thursday’s scheduled doubleheader against the Tigers–itself a makeup of two postponements–St. Louis hasn’t played at all in August, and not since a July 29 loss to Minnesota.

News came Thursday night, however, that, despite a new positive test of a Cardinal staffer and an “at risk” player being moved to the Injured List, the Cardinals are scheduled to resume playing Saturday. Whether the staffer’s test and any further developments with the player affect that plan remain to be seen; the Royals are scheduled to play three night games in St. Louis starting Monday, and three games against the Cards at home next month. It’s hard to gauge a team’s chances against another team that hasn’t played in almost a month and only five games in all.

But the Royals can’t dislike the opportunity these NL Central teams presents–the Brewers, Cards, Pirates and Reds all have losing records and are a collective 20-35. (KC’s AL Central opponents, on the other hand, are 41-32; postponements involving Miami and St. Louis account for the disparity in games played).

A total of 15 games remain before the KC Royals must make any trades they might be considering. Whether they’re buyers, sellers, or make no moves, what is the postseason prognosis?

Not to be overlooked in this analysis are the 15 games remaining before the Aug. 31 trade deadline. Excluding the game scheduled that day with Cleveland, which presumably will be played after the deadline passes, the KC Royals have seven with the Twins, three each with the White Sox and St. Louis and two with the Reds. Those games, against teams with a combined 32-29 record, will determine whether Kansas City will buy, sell, or stand pat.

Prognosis.  Absent an extension of the regular season forced by rainouts or pandemic-related postponements, the KC Royals won’t be playing October baseball unless their record improves significantly. Thoughts of contention can’t be seriously entertained until the club reaches .500, a goal certainly within their grasp at 8-11.

But it won’t be easy for new manager Mike Matheny, his staff and the players. Kansas City’s next four games are at Minnesota, making a second straight series sweep of the Twins unlikely. Sandwiched between those four and three with the Twins at Kauffman Stadium are two at The K with Cincinnati. Winning six of those nine games–a tall task considering seven are against Minnesota–would leave KC at .500 with 32 games to play.

Of those final 32 contests, 21 will be against the always formidable Indians, improved White Sox, and now unpredictable Tigers, currently a combined 29-25; the other 11 will pit the KC Royals against NL clubs St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee, currently a collective 13-26.

Realistically, Kansas City can’t get to the postseason without capitalizing on the golden opportunity playing the NL Central clubs presents. The Brewers aren’t performing particularly well, no one knows how the Cardinals will hold up as they try to cram so many missed games into an ever-narrowing time frame, and the Pirates are just a bad team. Winning almost all their remaining contests with the NL teams is a Royal must.

Even if they dominate those clubs, though, the Royals need to exceed preseason expectations against their American League rivals. They can’t afford to go anything less than .500 against Minnesota; simply cannot allow the Indians to beat them over 63 percent of the time as they have since the Royals last won the division; can’t let Chicago sweep them again; and have to dominate Detroit.

Can the KC Royals win the games they should against the NL Central and be even better against the AL Central? Perhaps. The starting pitching must be solid from top to bottom, so rookies Brady Singer and Kris Bubic need to step up even more than they already have. The bullpen has to be as good as it’s been so far (a bit better wouldn’t hurt, and Ian Kennedy can’t continue to give up home runs). The club needs to score more runs, and an Alex Gordon turnaround would be helpful.

(And the club shouldn’t think for even a second about sneaking into the postseason with a losing record, something possible only in this unique campaign. It’s a long shot at best).

At the end of the analytical day, the Royals making the playoffs isn’t terribly likely. But in a short season where anything can happen, it may not be terribly unlikely, either. And this Kansas City team is, so far, looking a bit better than it was supposed to. Don’t count KC out of this unusual campaign just yet.

The KC Royals have 41 games left this season. It will be interesting to see where those contests lead.