KC Royals’ draft record is dismal under Goldberg’s tenure

The KC Royals haven’t been very successful in the MLB Draft over the years. There’s more than enough data to support that take.

The KC Royals’ recent draft record hasn’t been good. You already knew that, of course.

You are well aware that the Royals selected Bubba Starling ahead of Anthony Rendon, Francisco Lindor, and George Springer in 2011. You know Kansas City could have had Corey Seager instead of Kyle Zimmer in 2012. And you’re probably wondering what happened to 2015 first-round pick Ashe Russell.

But do you know exactly how bad the Royals’ drafts have been since Lonnie Goldberg took charge in 2011?

Using cumulative WAR as the measurement, only the Tampa Bay Rays have been worse at selecting major league talent. The Rays’ cumulative WAR for all of the players they’ve drafted starting in 2011 is 16.2. Kansas City’s is not much better at 16.8. In contrast, the Boston Red Sox win the category with a total of 103.9.

Twenty-six of the 30 MLB teams own a cumulative WAR of at least twice as much as the Royals’ total. Twelve teams at least triple the total, while the Red Sox, Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals, and Oakland A’s drafted at least five times as much WAR during that time span.

To hammer home the point even more, 37 individual draft classes during that time span have accumulated more WAR at the major league level than the KC Royals’ past nine draft classes combined.

Mookie Betts, who the Royals had five stabs at selecting before the Red Sox took him 172nd overall in 2011, boasts a 41.8 career WAR through six seasons. The aforementioned Rendon, Lindor, Springer, and Seager also are among the several individual players drafted in 2011 or later to best all of the Royals’ classes.

To be fair, there are some flaws to this measurement. The totals are based on all of the MLB players a team drafted whether or not that player ended up signing with the team or whether or not he played a major league game with that team. For instance, the Blue Jays earned 19.4 worth of WAR for selecting pitcher Aaron Nola in the 22nd round out of high school in 2011. However, Nola passed on playing with the Blue Jays and was eventually selected by the Philadelphia Phillies in the first round of the 2014 MLB draft.

In the case of the Royals, more than half of their WAR since the 2011 draft comes from pitcher Sean Manaea. As you are surely well aware, none of Manaea’s 8.5 career WAR came in a Royals uniform as he was traded to the Oakland A’s in order to bring in infielder Ben Zobrist for Kansas City’s 2015 championship run.

So cumulative WAR from all of the players a team has drafted for the past nine years isn’t a perfect way to measure a team’s success rate. However, it does give us a pretty good indication whether or not a team is doing a good job of recognizing future major league talent.

It’s fair to say the Royals struggled mightily in that regard from 2011 through 2016 at least. During that time span, only 37 of their 253 draft picks have made it to the major leagues thus far. Even more concerning, only a handful of those players have demonstrated themselves to be much more than a replacement player at this point.

Manaea (8.5), Jakob Junis (4.2), Matt Strahm (3.9), Brandon Finnegan (2.2), Kevin McCarthy (1.9), Hunter Dozier (1.5), and Alec Mills (1.1) are the only players among those 37 draft picks with a career WAR of 1.0 or better.

The KC Royals’ 2011 and 2012 drafts were supposed to go a lot better than they actually did.

2011 draft

Cumulative WAR: 1.7; 8 of 50 picks have reached majors.

Good news: Kansas City’s first two selections — Starling (-0.8) and Cam Gallagher (0.2) — remain with the team and have the potential to contribute some at the MLB level over the next few years. So far, Junis’ selection in the 29th round has been the Royals’ highlight. And while he never emerged as an everyday player, Royals fans will always hold a special place in their heart for 20th-round pick Terrance Gore (0.1), who stole four bases as a pinch-runner during Kansas City’s playoff runs in 2014 and 2015.

Bad news: No matter what Starling achieves from this point forward, it will be impossible to justify selecting the Gardner-Edgerton High School star over the likes of Rendon, Lindor, and Springer. It’s probably not realistic to foresee Gallagher as anything more than a backup catcher, which isn’t great value for the 65th overall pick.

Bottom line: While securing a piece for your starting rotation in the 29th round with Junis is a win, this draft will always be remembered most for the players the KC Royals didn’t select.

Grade: D-

2012 draft

Cumulative WAR: 4.9; 8 of 40 picks have reached majors

Good news: Like in 2011, the Royals found some decent pitching in the later rounds. This time, Kansas City grabbed lefty Matt Strahm in the 21st round and right-hander Alec Mills in the 22nd. Righty Jake Newberry (0.5) also was good value for the 37th round. Finally past his injury problems, there remains a little bit of hope Zimmer will finally find some success.

Bad news: While it’s probably not fair to expect the Royals to predict Zimmer’s injury problems after being drafted, you can’t ignore that the team took the pitcher out of San Francisco ahead of several successful big leaguers. Strahm and Mills were good finds in the later rounds, but neither player remains in a Royals uniform. Kansas City made a pair of bad moves, dealing Strahm in a package to the Padres for Ryan Buchter, Trevor Cahill, and Brandon Mauer, and Mills to the Cubs for minor league outfielder Donnie Dewees, who is no longer in the KC Royals organization.

Bottom line: Even though the 2012 draft yielded a couple of decent MLB players, Zimmer and Newberry are the only big leaguers who are still in the organization.

Grade: D

Good thing the KC Royals won the World Series in 2015. The team’s drafts since then haven’t been very good (things have been looking up, though).

2015 draft

Cumulative WAR: 0.0; 2 of 41 picks have reached majors

Good news: Second-round pick Josh Staumont (-0.1) made his MLB debut in 2019 and possesses the velocity of a backend bullpen piece if he can control his pitches. Catcher Nick Dini is the only other Royals 2015 draft pick to reach the majors.

Bad news: Almost everything else about this draft. Top pick Ashe Russell hasn’t pitched since 2016 when he was 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two appearances at the rookie ball level. Pitcher Nolan Watson, a first-round supplemental pick, hasn’t pitched above A ball and is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Bottom line: There is little reason to expect Kansas City will ever get much value out of this draft outside of Staumont.

Grade: F

2016 draft

Cumulative WAR: -0.1; 3 of 39 picks have reached majors

Good news: Infielder Nicky Lopez (0.1) and lefty reliever Richard Lovelady (-0.3) have already reached the majors. Outfielder Khalil Lee, who stole 53 bases at Double-A last year, remains one of Kansas City’s top prospects.

Bad news: Top pick A.J. Puckett was traded for Melky Cabrera in 2017. Lovelady, Lee and outfielder Nick Heath are the only 2016 Royals draft picks who are considered in their top 30 prospects by Baseball America.

Bottom line: What Lee can contribute to the Royals will play a huge factor in deciding the future grade of this draft.

Grade: D

No Royals players from the 2017, 2018 and 2019 drafts have reached the big leagues thus far, and it is way too early to put a grade on any of these drafts.

If Goldberg’s draft record is going to see any rapid improvement, it’s going to be because of these three drafts.

The KC Royals’ hopes rely on 2017 picks Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez and 2018 pitchers Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, Brady Singer, and Kris Bubic, as well as from 2019 first-round pick Bobby Witt Jr., to prove that their days of being one of the worst teams at drafting are over.