KC Royals bullpen competition update: It’s still close

A crowd of relief pitchers is vying for a handful of spots in the bullpen of the KC Royals. After the first week of spring training games, the competition is still stiff.

For all its good, spring training is also a time of illusions, a thrower of the proverbial breaking pitch in the dirt that fools us into exaggerating the importance of a perennial weak hitter’s high spring average, a marginal pitcher’s sudden dominance, or a superstar’s uncharacteristically horrid performance.

If there is a lesson to be learned from baseball’s annual rite of renewal and preparation, including that of the KC Royals, it is this: Don’t bet the farm that spring training performance accurately foretells regular season outcomes.

To be sure, the sample sizes are too small and the variables too variable–minor league pitchers face major league hitters, major league pitchers face minor league hitters, all hitters typically take time to catch up to the pitchers. But the closer the regular season gets, the more usable performance data can become; it’s never foolproof, but it gets better with age.

So it is that lifting something meaningful out of just a week’s worth of exhibition game data is hard, a task made more difficult by those small sample sizes and invariably excessive variables, but doing so is the object of this early effort to make at least some sense of the crowded contest for the few spots available in the Royals’ bullpen.

To provide some order to the mess, it’s safe to assume that at least three relievers are locks for jobs–Ian Kennedy is the closer, Scott Barlow the presumptive main setup man by virtue of his sterling performance over the second half of last season, and Tim Hill is the best of the scarce left-handers in the competition, but one deserving of a spot in his own right.

Jorge Lopez is as close to a lock without absolutely being one that he can be–he has occasionally mesmerizing stuff, but inconsistency has prevented him from establishing himself as a starter or reliever. Barring unforeseen mediocrity, he’ll make the club–he’s out of options–and it will likely be as a reliever. With the three locks, Lopez, the 26-man roster and 13-pitcher maximum rules taking effect this season, and a five-man rotation, that leaves four bullpen spots for manager Mike Matheny to award.

Counting Thursday’s game, the KC Royals have seven days of exhibition games under their belts, including two days of split-squad games. Matheny hasn’t seen enough to determine to whom his remaining bullpen spots will go, but we can certainly examine the first week of spring contests and identify who’s doing well, who’s performing badly, and who’s on the bubble.

A veteran closer just trying to earn a spot on the team that made him famous, a pitcher searching for an identity and a couple of fireballers headline the early leaders for jobs in the KC Royals’ 2020 bullpen.

For at least four seasons past, Greg Holland reported to spring training with job security. He was the KC Royals’ closer for the better part of those four seasons, the final piece of the vaunted “HDH” bullpen combo–he, Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis–that devastated opponents and played such a vital role in the club’s 2014 and 2015 World Series runs.

Why Holland left KC is an unfortunate story: a torn UCL cut short his 2015 season just before the playoffs, and the Royals made him a free agent by releasing him shortly after they clinched the World Series. After missing all of 2016, he saved 41 games for Colorado in 2017, then floundered with the Cardinals and Nationals before recapturing at least some of his old form by saving 17 games for Arizona last season.

Now, Holland is back in familiar territory with the KC Royals, but lacks the springtime job security of the past. He’s a spring training invitee, working on a minor league contract, trying simply to earn a job. Ian Kennedy is the closer (for now–in the last year of his contract, he’s likely to be shopped at midseason), so Holland is competing for any job in the pen he can get.

So far is so good for Holland. With eyes close on him, looking for any sign that age or the effects of past injuries are taking their toll, he’s pitched twice and retired every batter he’s faced. Although he’s only thrown two innings–a reasonable amount of work considering his short relief/closer history–he’s fanned a batter in each. He’s working his breaking stuff a bit (curve and slider) and appears in good form. By ways of his past big league success and association with the Royals, he’ll get, and deserves, a long look; what he’s displayed so far is more than just encouraging.

Unlike Holland, Jorge Lopez isn’t fighting for a job–he’s trying to find his niche. He is superbly talented, but chronic inconsistency, control issues, and his tendency to perform similarly whether he’s in the rotation or the pen, make him a dilemma the KC Royals want desperately to solve–is he a starter or a reliever? He spent much of last season bouncing back and forth from the rotation to the pen and showed signs of being a good reliever. And the club believes Lopez can be effective out of the pen, even in short relief.

Lopez has dominated in two spring appearances. He started both and, in 4.2 total innings, has six strikeouts and only one walk; five of those strikeouts came against Texas in a 2.2 inning stint. Both outings could revive talk of Lopez starting–the fifth rotation spot is definitely open–but their brevity also supports management’s notion that he can be a good short man. (Could these games also make him a candidate to be an “opener” if the Royals choose to experiment with that role? Perhaps, but the club needs to find the spot that best suits Lopez and most benefits the team).

Josh Staumont has been “bringing it” so far; his fastball appeared to top out over 100 mph in his first game last week, an unsurprising occurrence considering he’s a consistently hard thrower. He last pitched Thursday against the Brewers, adding a scoreless inning to two previous scoreless games to keep his spring ERA at 0.00. He’s struck out six, and walked just one, in his three innings. Although it’s early, Staumont is making his case to stick with the club.

Jake Newberry also faced Milwaukee Thursday and kept his 0.00 ERA intact. Opposing batters are hitting .286 against him (1.50 WHIP) but he’s worked himself out of trouble. Control troubled him a bit in the 27 games he pitched for the KC Royals last season, but he could be on the way back to Kauffman Stadium if he continues to pitch well.

Glenn Sparkman, a part-time starter, part-time reliever, is most likely destined for the bullpen this season and should make the club. He’s pitched twice and struck out five and walked none in 3.1 innings.

Other KC relievers have also pitched well. Trevor Rosenthal missed his scheduled second appearance with calf tightness (a common, non-threatening issue in spring training) but was excellent in his first: no walks, no hits, and two strikeouts, and his fastball was its typical upper 90’s self. Randy Rosario has pitched 2.1 scoreless innings and Richard Lovelady, recovering from last year’s injury, has pitched a scoreless one-third frame–the smallest sample source of any hurler discussed here, but relevant because many are watching him.

Finally, Stephen Woods Jr., KC’s only Rule 5 selection, has two strikeouts and an earned run in his three innings. It’s not a stellar record, but his Rule 5 status means he’s closer to making the club than other similarly-situated candidates. Kevin McCarthy has surrendered two runs in two innings, and has four strikeouts; although he has an option left and could start the season in the minors, he remains a decent bet to break camp with the Royals.

Four KC Royals hoping to win jobs in the bullpen have had different performances so far, but none should be considered to have won–or lost–relief roles.

Jesse Hahn, a right-hander who’s appeared in five big league seasons, including one with the KC Royals, and Kyle Zimmer, another Royal with big-league experience, are competing for a spot in Mike Matheny‘s bullpen; so, too, are two complete newcomers to the club, Braden Shipley and Chance Adams. At this point, they haven’t eliminated themselves from the competition, but they haven’t distinguished themselves as locks.

Following some serviceable seasons with San Diego and Oakland, an injury slowed Hahn after he came to KC in a trade with the A’s after the 2017 season. He pitched only 10 times in the minors across 2018 and ’19, then pitched in six games for the Royals last season, going 0-1 in 4.2 innings; although he gave up seven runs on seven hits and walked six, he struck out seven.  The Royals released him after the season but re-signed him less than two weeks later.

Because he’s out of minor-league options, likely won’t find himself in the starting rotation, is pitching on a major league contract, and has big-league experience, Hahn stands a decent chance to make the club as a reliever. But he may be on the bubble, or close to it–in two games and two innings, he’s been rocked for five runs and six hits. Those numbers won’t disqualify him yet, but they can’t continue for long.

Zimmer, once a promising prospect the Royals have stuck with through the thick and thin of the unfortunate string of injuries that continually threatened his career, has two appearances, neither pretty. He pitched two-thirds of an inning against Cleveland and gave up two hits, two runs and two walks; he then pitched an inning against the White Sox Wednesday and struck out two, but surrendered two hits and a run. His ERA is 10.80, his record 0-1. However, the club and Zimmer are dedicated to each other and he can still earn a spot. (He also has an option left).

Shipley was a curious offseason acquisition for the Royals, a starter turned reliever with a brief and undistinguished big league career. In 26 games over three partial seasons with Arizona, he was 4-6 with a 5.49 ERA; the high ERA is consistent with the increasingly high ERAs he posted in the minors. Shipley will have to do better to make it to Kansas City and has impressed so far, pitching twice with no walks, three strikeouts and a save in three innings. A long shot when spring training began, Shipley has improved his chances; how much remains to be seen.

Adams was once a bright star in the Yankee organization who punctuated his rise through the minors with stingy successive season ERAs of 1.78, 2.33, 1.03 and 2.89, and stellar 2016 and ’17 season records of 13-1 and 15-5. But he hasn’t repeated such success since undergoing elbow surgery after the 2017 season; he pitched poorly in the minors and in what little time he spent with the Yankees, who traded him to the Royals last December for minor league Cristian Perez.

Adams and the Royals hope he recaptures the form that made the Yankees so justifiably high on him. So far, he’s appeared in two games and struck out two and walked none in 2.1 innings. But he’s also surrendered three hits and two runs, although one of those runs was unearned. The Royals need to see more of Adams before deciding whether he was a Chance worth taking.

The Royals haven’t made any public decisions about their spring bullpen competition. Some pitchers are locks to make the team, others are trending downward, and still, others are on the bubble. The field will narrow before long, but for now, the competition remains wide open.