KC Royals: Questions loom as Spring Training approaches

The KC Royals officially open the gates to Spring Training on February 12. The club has a new third baseman and some new relievers, but questions about the starting rotation, first base and the outfield need answers.

The late afternoon sacrifice fly off Brett Phillips‘ bat that gave the KC Royals a walk-off season finale win over Minnesota on September 29 marked more than the end of another dismal Kansas City campaign. The offseason began the instant the winning run crossed the plate–there were things to repair and others to replace, the kind of tasks made necessary by a 103 loss season.

It is hard to imagine General Manager Dayton Moore taking much time off before he set about putting as much of the Royals’ house in order as possible. There was a manager to hire. Alex Gordon was contemplating retirement and his decision, no matter what it turned out to be, would have lineup implications. The rotation and bullpen, in varying degrees of disarray, needed work. Concerns about his defense cast doubt on Hunter Dozier‘s hold on third base. No Royal enjoyed indisputable claim to first base or right field.

And on top of it all, a new ownership group was preparing to take control of the franchise.

The ownership change was, of course, out of Moore’s hands–announced in August, only baseball’s formal approval awaited, and it came in November. The managerial opening occasioned by Ned Yost‘s retirement took Moore a month to fill–to no one’s surprise, he gave Mike Matheny the job.

Never prone to spend extravagantly on relievers, Moore appears to have done all he reasonably could to give Matheny plenty of bullpen projects from which to choose, including former KC closer Greg Holland, who returns to the Royals in search of rejuvenation, and Trevor Rosenthal, the ex-Cardinal who put in his finest seasons working for Matheny in St. Louis.

In a deal few saw coming, Moore’s signing of Maikel Franco to play third base resolved not only the concerns about Dozier’s hot corner defense, but also the uncertainty in right field as Dozier, suddenly displaced at third, will play there. Gordon decided to return for $4 million, leaving Brett Phillips and Bubba Starling to vie for a backup outfield role.

So while Moore’s winter work may have resolved some issues, major questions remain unanswered just days before Spring Training opens. Who will secure the fifth spot in the Royals’ shaky starting rotation? Who will play first base? And who will provide outfield backup for Gordon, Merrifield and Dozier?

The KC Royals had one of the worst starting rotations in the major leagues in 2020. Four returning pitchers appear to have spots sewn up for this season, but the fifth rotation slot is definitely up for grabs.

By any traditional or more “modern” analytical measure, inferior starting pitching plagued the KC Royals in 2019. Twenty-one teams’ starting rotations won more games, and 26 lost fewer games, than the Royals’ starters; FanGraphs ranked KC’s rotation above only three others; and the Royals ranked 23rd in ERA, 29th in xFIP, and 25th in WHIP, and 22 teams held opponents to lower batting averages.

Individual wins and losses told a similar tale.  Jakob Junis led KC’s staff in wins with 9, but lost 14. Brad Keller, the club’s 2018 Pitcher of the Year, lost twice as many games as he won; while he tied Danny Duffy and Homer Bailey for second-best with seven wins, he equaled Junis’ 14 losses. (But for Bailey’s trade to Oakland in July, he likely would have surpassed Junis for most wins–he won six with the A’s). Glenn Sparkman was 4-11; Mike Montgomery was 2-7 after joining the club in July. (The records of others who made occasional starts are hardly worth mentioning).

The Royals enter Spring Training with four probable starters but no clear fifth. Duffy, Junis, Keller and Montgomery will likely start; others, such as Sparkman, Jorge Lopez and Kyle Zimmer seem better suited for relief work. Brady Singer, beginning just his second professional season, has a Spring Training invitation and will probably see his first major league action sometime this season, but may not be quite ready to break camp as the fifth starter.

There is no evidence Moore considered pursuing any of the leading free agent starters–pitchers like Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg would make wonderful Royals but some things are simply too expensive for this franchise. Instead, Moore sensibly opted for lower profile, less costly talent by grabbing Stephen Woods from Tampa in the Rule 5 draft, trading a minor league infielder for former Yankee prospect Chance Adams, and picking up Braden Shipley. With the crop of homegrown talent approaching major league readiness, there was no reason to break the bank.

Of these newcomers, Woods has the best shot at the fifth rotation spot. He went 9-3 with a 1.88 ERA at High A last season, and has a three-year 2.61 ERA. Woods has to stay on the major league roster all season or be offered back to the Rays, a restraint that only increases his chances to stick. Adams could break into the rotation if he recaptures the pre-elbow surgery form that once made him a top pitcher in the Yankee organization. Shipley is a long shot at best.

The fifth starter question is difficult and not likely to be answered until late in Spring Training.

The KC Royals have been searching for a first baseman for three seasons and hope to find one in 2020. The club will look first to a couple of young players with the same first name.

The KC Royals’ quest to fill the gaping hole left at first base by Eric Hosmer‘s departure after 2017 continues. The club gave Lucas Duda two shots at the job, first in 2018 until it traded him to Atlanta, then again for a shorter time in 2019 before declaring a merciful end to the attempt when Duda’s bat failed. Ryan O’Hearn received the longest look at first last season, but suffered at the plate.

So it is that the Royals enter their third Spring Training with things still unsettled at Hosmer’s old position. Their hopes to finally resolve the matter rest first on O’Hearn, whose 2018 performance earned him most of the playing time at first last season–he played there in 31 of his 44 games, hitting 12 home runs with 30 RBIs, a .262 average and .950 OPS (154 OPS+). Although he declined miserably in 2019–he hit 14 homers but with an ugly .195/.281/.369 slash (70 OPS+)–’18 may more accurately reflect his potential. And new manager Mike Matheny is a fan.

Unless KC swings a late deal, another Ryan will provide O’Hearn’s competition. Ryan McBroom came to the club last August in a straight-cash transaction with the Yankees and saw action at first and in the outfield. His batting average was the best feature of his .293/.361/.360 23-game slash (his 93 OPS+ must improve) but he clubbed 102 homers in six minor league seasons with the Yanks and posted a .976 OPS in AAA before the Royals bought his contract.

Of course, the club is sure to test Salvador Perez at first a few times this season as it searches for ways to reduce the physical demands of catching and to rest his post-Tommy John surgery elbow. And Jorge Soler may see bits of time there. Clearly, however, the Royals seek daily first base certainty, so a Ryan is the preferred everyday choice. A Ryan-Ryan platoon isn’t out of the question–McBroom fares far better against left-handers than O’Hearn.