KC Royals: Breaking down the 2020 stat projections

Major statistical websites have already updated some 2020 KC Royals projections. Let’s take a look at two of them.

The KC Royals have defied projection systems for years. Not many sites saw the 2014 World Series-bound team being as successful as it was. The same thing happened the following year when the trophy was brought back to Kansas City. As a whole, the team has generally exceeded expectations.

The same goes for the individual players, too. Systems like FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference put out yearly statistical projections for Major League Baseball players. These projections display home run totals, RBI counts, slash lines, and the like. Members of the Royals are no different.

Ahead of the 2020 regular season, I thought it would be a fun idea to take a look at some highlights of FanGraphs and B-Ref’s numbers for this year’s squad. While there are some usual suspects at the top, there are also some surprises thrown in the mix.

A year ago, it was the likes of Whit Merrifield and Jorge Soler leading the way for the bats and Brad Keller headlining the rotation. The 2020 roster is very similar to the 2019 one so without further ado, let’s jump in and take a look.

Infield Projections

Usual suspect: Salvador Perez

After missing the entire 2019 season with a torn UCL, Perez is slated to rejoin the team at full strength ahead of 2020. In his last healthy season, he posted a .235 batting average and clobbered a career-high 27 home runs. FanGraphs projects those numbers to be .252 and 27 in 2020. Baseball-Reference’s figures: .250 and 13.

Pleasant surprises: Ryan O’Hearn (kind of), Nicky Lopez

O’Hearn burst onto the scene his rookie year, clobbering ball after ball and putting together one of the most impressive displays of raw power KC Royals fans had seen in recent memory. After struggling immensely in 2019, both projection systems predict a mini-bounceback this year. Not to even an average level, but still a lot more playable than last season.

Lopez’s rookie season was hard to watch. At the plate, he resembled O’Hearn. Putting things together a bit in the final weeks of the season, he flashed his potential as an on-base machine and speedy utility player. Much like O’Hearn, both are in for improvement this year by projection standards.

Disappointing finding: Adalberto Mondesi

Maybe it’s just me, but it feels like Mondesi has yet to even sniff his ceiling as a player. Still just 24 years old, the young star shortstop has had a very hard time staying on the field. He also took a step back at the plate in 2019. Contrary to popular belief, only minor improvement is expected by FG and B-Ref for this season.

Outfield Projections (and Jorge Soler)

Usual suspect: Whit Merrifield 

Merrifield has been the KC Royals’ best player for some time now. He’s hit above .300 for consecutive seasons and has led the league in hits in both of those campaigns as well. FG expects him to take a small step back (99 wRC+ compared to 110), but B-Ref projects pretty much more of the same. As he moves to the outfield full-time, or close to it, his offensive production should remain stellar.

Pleasant surprises: Brett Phillips, Bubba Starling

Phillips has had a rough past couple of years in a Royals uniform. With that said, his awful performance at the plate could be partially attributed to not having steady reps. It’s unlikely that changes a ton in 2020, but both systems project him to perform at a more playable level. When taking into account his elite-level defense, things may be looking up.

You can insert pretty much everything said about Phillips and apply it to Starling as well. He’s a great defender and a talented baserunner, but his bat leaves more than some to be desired. He was a bit better of a hitter than Phillips last season, so his hike in numbers isn’t quite as extreme.

Disappointing finding: Jorge Soler

Soler’s regression isn’t severe, but the home run total is projected to be. FG predicts a drop from 48 to 35, while B-Ref calls for just 33 long balls. On a one-year contract, it would not be a good thing for him.